Excelsior vs Telstar Preview (Eredivisie 2025)
Excelsior and Telstar meet in what looks like a quietly pivotal fixture near the bottom half of the Eredivisie table. On paper it’s 14th versus 15th, but the underlying numbers and form trends tell a more nuanced story.
Our model edges this slightly towards a home win, but with Telstar’s unbeaten run and strong attacking output, it’s a match that sets up better for goal-based bets than a heavy stance on the 1X2.
Team Form and Momentum
Excelsior arrive with a mixed record: 4 wins, 1 draw and 5 defeats in their last 10 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 16. That’s just 1.0 goal per game for and 1.6 against, which perfectly matches the eye test: fragile at the back, streaky in attack.
They’ve taken some big hits against top sides – the recent 5–1 loss to PSV stands out – but they’ve also shown resilience in six-pointers like the 2–1 win over PEC Zwolle. That inconsistency explains why they’re sitting 14th with 19 points from 17, not yet in real crisis but with no margin for comfort.
Telstar, by contrast, come into this with outstanding short-term form: 5 wins and 5 draws in their last 10, unbeaten in that stretch, with 21 goals scored (2.1 per game) and only 10 conceded (1.0 per game). That’s the profile of a side whose league position – 15th with 15 points from 18 – is slightly misleading when judged solely on the table.
Results like a competitive 3–2 against Ajax show that A. Correia’s team are not just beating their peers, they’re also able to trouble stronger opponents with their aggressive, forward-thinking style.
Tactical Matchup
R. den Uil has been consistent: Excelsior have lined up 4-2-3-1 in each of their last three league outings. The spine is well defined:
- Back four: Bronkhorst, Widell, Meissen plus either Janssen or Zagré
- Double pivot: usually I. Yegoian with L. Hartjes
- Attacking band: D. Sanches Fernandes and N. Naujoks providing creativity, with G. de Regt supporting the striker
- No. 9: J. Bergraaf leading the line
At their best, Excelsior use this structure to press in midfield and create overloads between the lines, with Naujoks drifting inside and de Regt attacking half-spaces. But when the pivot is weakened, their transitions become slower and they struggle to protect the back four.
Telstar under A. Correia have fully embraced a 3-4-2-1 that hasn’t changed across the last three games:
- Back three: Ogidi Nwankwo – Offerhaus – Bakker
- Wing-backs: Noslin and Hardeveld pushing very high
- Midfield two: Rossen and Owusu as a hard-running, ball-winning pairing
- Front three: Ritmeester van de Kamp and Brouwer floating behind Zonneveld
This setup is perfect for transitions. They defend with five when needed, then break quickly via the wing-backs and flexible attacking trio. Against Excelsior’s 4-2-3-1, Telstar will look to outnumber the two central midfielders, pull the full-backs out of position, and create 3v2s in wide areas.
Key Missing Players and Their Impact
The major absentee in this match is L. Hartjes for Excelsior, sidelined with a jumper’s knee.
Hartjes has started in central midfield in all three of Excelsior’s recent matches, usually as part of the double pivot. His importance is twofold:
- On the ball: He helps build from deep, connecting the centre-backs to the attacking midfield line. His passing range and ability to play through the press are crucial against teams like Telstar that push high.
- Out of possession: He reads danger well, screens the back four and helps win second balls – an area where Telstar thrive with Noslin, Hardeveld, and the front three attacking loose possession.
Without Hartjes, den Uil is likely to turn to someone like Stijn Middendorp alongside Yegoian. Middendorp can cover ground, but doesn’t bring the same composure or distribution. The result is likely a drop in Excelsior’s ball retention and control, especially when Telstar flood the middle with their midfield two plus the two attacking midfielders.
Telstar, notably, have no listed injuries or suspensions from the provided data, which means Correia can field his strongest XI again. That continuity – same system, same personnel for multiple matches – is a major advantage in a tactical matchup like this.
Overall, Hartjes’ absence slightly weakens Excelsior’s ability to dictate tempo and protect their back line, which plays into Telstar’s counter-attacking strengths and supports a higher-scoring, end-to-end game.
Head-to-Head Insights
The recent head-to-head record is remarkably balanced:
- Last 5 meetings: Excelsior 2W, 2D, 1L
- Goals: Excelsior 9 – 9 Telstar (1.8 per team per game)
Both teams tend to find the net in this fixture, and margins have been small. There’s no evidence of a psychological hoodoo either way; if anything, Excelsior have enjoyed a slight edge in tight clashes, which combines with home advantage to justify the market making them narrow favourites.
This context backs up a prediction of a close, possibly one-goal game, rather than a blowout.
Expected Goals (xG) Analysis
We don’t have full shot maps here, but we can estimate xG profiles from recent scoring and conceding trends.
- Excelsior: 10 scored and 16 conceded in 10 matches suggests roughly 1.0–1.1 xG for and 1.5–1.6 xG against per game recently. At home, they typically generate a bit more, so we project around 1.2–1.3 xG for in this matchup.
- Telstar: 21 scored and 10 conceded in 10 matches implies around 1.7–1.8 xG for and 1.1–1.2 xG against. Away from home you’d shade those down slightly in attack and up slightly in defence, giving roughly 1.6–1.7 xG for and 1.2 xG against.
Combine those and you get an expected goals environment of about 2.8–3.0 total xG. That aligns strongly with:
- A high probability of both teams scoring
- A decent edge for over 2.5 goals
Telstar’s 2.1 goals scored per game suggests they’re finishing efficiently – possibly a touch above their underlying xG – while Excelsior’s 1.0 goals per game hints at slight underperformance given their attacking structure. That hints at some positive regression for the hosts and reinforces the 2–1 type scoreline.
Predicted Outcome and Scoreline
Taking all factors together – form, tactics, injuries, xG estimates and head-to-head – our model leans toward a narrow home win but with very little between the sides:
- Match winner probabilities: Excelsior 40% – Draw 29% – Telstar 31%
- Both teams to score: 68% yes, 32% no
- Over 2.5 goals: 63% over, 37% under
Predicted score: Excelsior 2–1 Telstar.
Excelsior’s home edge and slight historic advantage just outweigh Telstar’s impressive recent run, especially if the hosts can capitalise on Telstar’s high-risk approach in transition. Still, the probability distribution is tight enough that a draw or away win is very plausible.
Value Bets vs 1xBet Odds
1xBet offer the following key prices:
- 1X2: Excelsior 2.26 | Draw 3.56 | Telstar 3.15
- Over 2.5 goals: 1.72 over | 2.17 under
- Both Teams to Score: 1.55 yes | 2.30 no
Translating odds to implied probabilities:
- Excelsior: ~44%
- Telstar: ~32%
- Draw: ~28%
Our model has Excelsior at 40%, Telstar at 31%, and the draw at 29%. That’s broadly in line with the market, with a very slight lean toward Telstar value if you really want an underdog angle, but the edge is small.
Where we see clearer value is in the goals markets:
- BTTS – Yes at 1.55 implies ~64–65%, while we project 68% → small value on both teams scoring.
- Over 2.5 at 1.72 implies about 58%, versus our 63% → again, a modest but genuine edge.
Given the uncertainty in the outright result, focusing on BTTS and over 2.5 looks more rational than going heavy on a side.
Asian Handicap Recommendations
The Asian handicap lines aren’t fully specified, but we can infer the likely markets from the 1X2:
- A typical main line here would be Excelsior -0.25 or -0.5, with Telstar on the positive side.
Given our probabilities and 2–1 predicted scoreline:
- Excelsior -0.5 (equivalent to backing them to win) is only marginally attractive, since our 40% home-win figure is actually slightly lower than the implied 44% from the straight 1X2 odds.
- Excelsior 0 (Draw No Bet) becomes more interesting, because:
- You win if Excelsior edge it as predicted
- You get your stake back on a draw
With a combined 69% chance (home or draw) on our model, the Excelsior 0 handicap is a reasonable, lower-risk way to express a marginal home lean.
On the flip side, Telstar +0.5 or +0.25 would suit those more convinced by their unbeaten run; our 60% combined draw-or-away probability suggests that, at the right price, Telstar on a positive handicap could offer value.
Overall, though, the strongest handicap angle is conservative: Excelsior 0 (DNB) for those siding with home advantage, backed up by a firmer stance on BTTS and over 2.5 goals.
Conclusion
This is a finely balanced relegation-battle style matchup, with a slightly underperforming Excelsior facing a Telstar side whose form is better than the table suggests. Hartjes’ absence weakens the hosts in midfield, but home advantage, head-to-head history and slight positive regression potential tip our model towards a 2–1 Excelsior win.
From a betting perspective, the real story lies in goals: expect an open game with both sides creating enough to justify BTTS and over 2.5 as the standout angles, while using Asian handicap lines like Excelsior 0 for more cautious exposure on the match result.
