About OwnOdds
Model-driven football predictions, published with the results attached.
OwnOdds prices football matches: how many goals each side is likely to score, and what that implies for the result, the goals line, both teams to score and the exact scoreline. We cover more than fifty competitions, from the Premier League and Serie A to the J1 League and Liga MX.
What separates this from most prediction sites is not the predictions. It is that we publish what happened next.
We grade ourselves in public
Every prediction we publish is scored against the result — the match outcome, the exact score, the goals line and both teams to score, each marked right or wrong. Those grades are shown on the prediction page itself, and totalled on our track record, which currently covers several thousand graded predictions.
Nothing is curated out of it. Losing calls appear as prominently as winning ones, the exact scoreline is counted even though it lands around one time in ten, and the record currently shows our confidence scores have been overstated — because that is what the data says. A track record you cannot use to catch us out would not be worth publishing.
How the predictions are made
Each match starts with a statistical estimate calculated from league data — each team's scoring and conceding rate in the venue they are about to play in, measured against the average for their own division. An AI model is then given that estimate and asked for a bounded adjustment covering what the arithmetic cannot see: injuries, suspensions, rotation, a side already through in a cup tie.
The model can nudge the number; it cannot replace it. Every market shown is then derived from that one figure, so the scoreline list and the goals tip beside it are the same calculation viewed two ways rather than two opinions that might disagree. The full explanation is on our methodology page.
Our editorial standards
- AI involvement is disclosed. Predictions and news articles here are written by AI models from the data described on each page, and published automatically without human review. Every page says so.
- Reporting is credited. Where a news article draws on other outlets, we name and link every one of them.
- Nothing is edited after the result. The analysis on a played fixture is the preview exactly as it was published before kick-off, wrong calls included.
- We do not sell tips. Every prediction on the site is free and public. There is no premium tier and no paid picks.
What we are not
We are not a bookmaker and we do not accept bets or hold funds. Some links on this site go to betting operators and we may be paid if you open an account through them; that never changes what our model outputs, which is calculated before any commercial consideration enters the picture.
Our predictions are probabilities, not forecasts. A 70% call losing is not a broken model — it is the 30% arriving, and it will keep arriving about three times in ten. Treat what we publish as one input alongside your own judgement, never as a substitute for it.
Betting is 18+ and carries real risk. If it stops being fun, visit BeGambleAware.
Getting in touch
OwnOdds is an independently run site — not a company with a newsroom. Corrections, questions and press enquiries all go to info@ownodds.com. If you think something we have published is wrong, please tell us — see our contact page for what to include.