Our Prediction Methodology
How we generate match predictions and confidence scores
How Our Model Works
Our prediction engine combines multiple data signals to generate accurate match forecasts. For each fixture, we analyse:
- Historical fixture data spanning the last 5 seasons
- Current season form based on the last 10 matches
- Head-to-head records between the two teams
- Home and away performance splits
- AI language model analysis to synthesise patterns and contextual factors
These signals are weighted and combined to produce win probabilities, predicted scorelines, and recommended betting markets for each fixture.
Data Sources
Our predictions are built on a robust and regularly updated dataset:
- Match fixture data from API-Sports, covering over 500,000 fixtures across global leagues
- Team statistics including goals scored, conceded, shots, and possession
- Head-to-head history for all tracked team pairings
Our dataset is updated daily to ensure predictions reflect the most current form and results.
Confidence Levels
Each prediction is assigned a confidence level — High, Medium, or Low — based on the strength and consistency of the underlying data signals.
High Confidence
Strong form differential between the two teams, consistent head-to-head history pointing in one direction, and a clear home advantage factor.
Medium Confidence
A competitive matchup where data signals are present but mixed. Recent form may show conflicting trends or the head-to-head history is close.
Low Confidence
An unpredictable fixture where teams are evenly matched, limited head-to-head data is available, or recent form provides insufficient signal.
What We Predict
For each supported fixture, our model outputs:
- Win probability (%) for home win, draw, and away win
- Predicted scoreline
- Both teams to score (yes / no)
- Over / under goals markets
- Recommended bet markets based on model confidence
Limitations & Responsible Use
Our predictions are generated by statistical models and are not guarantees of match outcomes. Football is inherently unpredictable, and certain factors may not always be fully captured by our model, including:
- Late team news, injuries, and suspensions
- Weather conditions on match day
- Referee decisions and in-game incidents
- Managerial tactics and rotation decisions
Please use our predictions as one input in your decision-making, not as a substitute for your own judgement. Please gamble responsibly. If you need help, visit BeGambleAware.