Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen Preview (Bundesliga 2025)
Two of the Bundesliga’s most entertaining sides meet at PreZero Arena with just a single point between them in the table. Hoffenheim under C. Ilzer are flying, but K. Hjulmand’s Leverkusen still carry enough attacking quality to turn this into a shootout.
Our model leans towards an open, high-scoring draw: 2-2, with the strongest betting angles on goals rather than the 1X2 market.
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Team Form and Confidence
Hoffenheim come in with one of the league’s hottest records: 6 wins, 3 draws and just 1 defeat over their last 10 matches. The numbers are impressive: 2.3 goals scored per game and only 0.9 conceded. Recent results like the 5-1 thrashing of Borussia Mönchengladbach and 4-1 over Hamburg show a side that can blow opponents away once they find rhythm.
Ilzer has given them a clear identity: front-foot football with quick vertical passing and a lot of interchange around the box. Defensively, they’ve tightened up compared to previous seasons, with Kabak and Hranáč forming a rugged pairing in front of the experienced Baumann.
Leverkusen are more volatile: 6W-1D-3L in their last 10, scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.6 per match. The upside is obvious – they can still suffocate weaker teams – but the recent 1-3 loss to RB Leipzig and 1-4 defeat at Stuttgart exposed how open they can be when their press is bypassed. The postponement of the Hamburg match due to stadium issues has given them a slightly odd rhythm: extra rest, but also a stop-start feel to their season.
With Hoffenheim 5th on 30 points and Leverkusen 6th on 29 after 16 games, this is as close to a six-pointer for European spots as it gets in January.
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Tactical Matchup
Ilzer has alternated between 4-3-1-2, 4-2-2-2 and 4-4-2 in the last three matches, but the core principles remain stable:
- Back four with Coufal and Bernardo giving width but choosing their moments to bomb on.
- Double/Triple pivot of Burger, Avdullahu and Prömel/Prass providing legs, pressing and second balls.
- Andrej Kramarić floating between the lines as a hybrid 10/second striker, knitting play and arriving late into the box.
- Two forwards (Lemperle, Asllani, occasionally Kramarić up top) attacking the channels and penalty spot.
This structure is well-suited to attack Leverkusen’s weak spots: the spaces either side of the central centre-back, and the area behind the wing-backs when they push very high.
Hjulmand has been loyal to a 3-4-2-1:
- Three centre-backs, with Andrich often stepping out aggressively into midfield.
- Wing-backs Arthur and Grimaldo driving the width and delivering a lot of final-third quality.
- Double pivot of Enzo Fernández and Aleix García, two technically elite passers who can control tempo but are not pure destroyers.
- Two narrow 10s, usually Tillman and Tella or Hofmann, buzzing between the lines.
- Terrier or Schick leading the line, supported by late arrivals from deeper runners.
Against Hoffenheim’s two strikers, Leverkusen’s back three could easily be dragged wide, opening lanes for Kramarić’s late surges. Conversely, Hoffenheim’s full-backs will be under constant pressure from Grimaldo and Arthur, and if their pressing isn’t coordinated, Leverkusen’s 3v2 overloads in midfield could tilt the game.
Tactically, it feels like a game where both teams will create plenty of chances and neither will fully control transitions for 90 minutes.
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Key Players and On-Field Influences
For Hoffenheim:
- Andrej Kramarić remains the brain of the side. Even at 34, his movement between lines, disguised passing and set-piece threat are central to how Hoffenheim break blocks.
- Wouter Burger provides the platform; his ball-winning and vertical passing were key in the recent big wins.
- Ozan Kabak offers physical dominance and aerial strength; against a target like Terrier or Schick, his duels will be decisive.
For Leverkusen:
- Álex Grimaldo is arguably their most consistent creative outlet from deep. His crossing and set-piece delivery add huge xG from wide areas.
- Aleix García and Enzo Fernández can dictate pace if given time, switching play quickly to exploit Hoffenheim’s advanced full-backs.
- Nathan Tella and Malik Tillman between the lines will test Hoffenheim’s compactness; any space around Burger and Avdullahu could be fatal.
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Missing Key Players: Impact Assessment
No explicit injury or suspension list is provided for this match, so we have to work on the assumption that both coaches have near-full squads to choose from.
In practical terms, that means:
- Hoffenheim can field their preferred spine: Baumann – Kabak – Hranáč – Burger – Kramarić plus one or two of Lemperle/Asllani/Bebou. When this core has started together recently, the team’s balance between attack and defence has looked excellent.
- Leverkusen should be able to rotate between Schick and Terrier up front, and use experienced options like Hofmann or younger profiles like Poku and Ben Seghir off the bench. Depth in the attacking midfield slots reduces the impact of any single absence there.
The biggest potential ‘hidden’ risk for Leverkusen is if one of the ball-progressing centre-backs or a wing-back is not at full fitness, because their entire 3-4-2-1 system depends heavily on build-up quality from the back and aggressive width. A weaker option at wing-back, for example, would significantly reduce their chance-creation and make them easier to press.
Similarly, if Hoffenheim had to manage without Kramarić, their creativity between the lines would drop sharply, forcing them into a more direct, cross-heavy game. Given his current involvement in virtually every major attacking move, his availability is vital to their chances of out-scoring Leverkusen.
With no confirmed absentees, though, the expectation is that both coaches field close to their best XI, which reinforces the high-scoring outlook: more talent on the pitch usually means more xG.
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Expected Goals (xG) Analysis
We can estimate xG trends based on recent scoring and conceding rates and playing styles.
- Hoffenheim: 2.3 goals scored and 0.9 conceded in the last 10 suggests an attacking xG around 1.8–2.0 per game and a defensive xG against near 1.0. They’re probably slightly overperforming their finishing, helped by Kramarić’s quality and good set-piece conversion.
- Leverkusen: 1.7 goals scored and 1.6 conceded indicates an attacking xG around 1.6–1.8 and xG against around 1.5–1.7. That pattern fits a team that commits numbers forward and sometimes leaves the back door open.
The combined xG expectation for this match sits in the 3.2–3.5 range, which justifies:
- Strong lean to Over 2.5 goals.
- High probability of Both Teams To Score.
Hoffenheim’s positive xG differential (roughly +0.8 to +1.0 per game over the last 10) is stronger than Leverkusen’s marginally positive or even flat differential. However, Leverkusen’s ceiling remains high thanks to their volume of shots and crossing, especially through Grimaldo and Arthur.
From an xG perspective, Hoffenheim should have a slight edge, but the variance in Leverkusen’s performance makes an outright win harder to pin down. That’s why our model settles on a 2-2 scoreline: both sides generating around 1.5–1.8 xG each.
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Head-to-Head Insights
The recent head-to-head is firmly in Leverkusen’s favour:
- Last 5 meetings: Hoffenheim 1W-0D-4L
- Goals: Hoffenheim 7 (1.4 per game), Leverkusen 13 (2.6 per game)
Historically, Leverkusen have thrived in this matchup, particularly exploiting Hoffenheim’s high line and full-backs. However, those numbers are skewed by earlier seasons when Hoffenheim were far more chaotic defensively.
Under Ilzer, Hoffenheim look better drilled without the ball, pressing in coordinated waves and protecting central spaces more effectively. That’s why, despite the poor head-to-head, our model gives Hoffenheim a slight overall edge at home – but not enough to override the high draw probability.
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Value Bets vs 1xBet Odds
Let’s compare our probabilities with the 1xBet prices:
1X2 Market (Match Result)
- Book odds (approx implied probabilities):
- Hoffenheim 2.62 → ~38%
- Draw 3.96 → ~25%
- Leverkusen 2.62 → ~38%
- Our model:
- Hoffenheim: 38%
- Draw: 27%
- Leverkusen: 35%
There’s no major edge on either side to win – the market and our model are very close. The only marginal discrepancy is the draw, which we rate at 27% versus an implied ~25%. That’s a small value lean towards the draw, but not a huge one.
Both Teams To Score
- Odds: Yes 1.42, No 2.69
- Implied BTTS Yes probability ≈ 70%
- Our model: BTTS Yes 74%, No 26%
Here we do see slight value on BTTS Yes. With both teams’ xG profiles and defensive fragility, we’d price BTTS even shorter.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
- Odds: Over 1.46 (≈ 68%), Under 2.49 (≈ 40%)
- Our model: Over 72%, Under 28%
Again, Over 2.5 goals has modest value – we see this game as closer to 1.38–1.40 than 1.46 for the over.
Best value bets:
- Over 2.5 goals
- Both teams to score – Yes
- Smaller stake: Draw (X) on 1X2 for those hunting a price.
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Asian Handicap Predictions
We don’t have exact Asian Handicap lines from the book here, but with both teams around 2.62 in the 1X2, the main handicap will be close to 0 (pk) on either side.
Based on our probabilities:
- Hoffenheim win: 38%
- Leverkusen win: 35%
- Draw: 27%
On a 0 Asian Handicap (Draw No Bet):
- Our fair odds for Hoffenheim DNB would be ≈ 38 / (38+35) ≈ 52% → decimal odds ~1.92.
- For Leverkusen DNB: ≈ 35 / (38+35) ≈ 48% → odds ~2.08.
If bookmakers price both teams around 1.95 on the 0 handicap (as is typical when 1X2 is level), there is no clear edge – our model sees it almost exactly balanced.
Given our 2-2 prediction and high draw probability, the most pragmatic Asian angle is:
- Avoid heavy exposure on either side.
- If forced to choose, a Hoffenheim +0.25 (if available near 1.80–1.85) would be slightly attractive, as it pays half on a draw and fully on a home win, aligning with our marginal home edge.
But overall, the best use of the Asian market here is often to concentrate stake on goal-based lines rather than match result:
- Over 2.75 goals would suit our xG projection well, offering a split stake between over 2.5 and over 3.
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Final Verdict
This feels like a classic modern Bundesliga clash: high tempo, aggressive full-backs, and plenty of chances at both ends. Hoffenheim’s recent form and improved defensive structure give them a fractional edge, but Leverkusen’s attacking talent and positive head-to-head record keep this very close.
Predicted result: 1899 Hoffenheim 2–2 Bayer Leverkusen.
From a betting perspective, the smartest plays are on goals markets – particularly Over 2.5 and Both Teams To Score – rather than trying to pick a winner in a matchup where the margins are this fine.
