Al-Hazm vs Al-Qadisiyah FC Preview
Al-Hazm welcome Al-Qadisiyah FC in a Pro League clash that looks far more balanced than the league table suggests. The visitors are riding high in 5th, but recent form and defensive numbers tilt this particular matchup slightly towards Jalal Qaderi’s side.
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Team Form and Context
Al-Hazm sit 11th with 16 points from 14 games, but their trajectory is upward. Their last 10 matches show a 3W-2D-5L record with 12 goals scored and 20 conceded (1.2 for, 2.0 against per game). The raw numbers still look mediocre, yet the recent block of performances is encouraging: a 3-2 win over Al Najma and an impressive 3-0 victory over Al-Hilal stand out as signs of a side finding its feet.
Under Jalal Qaderi, Al-Hazm have learned to switch gears. They’ve used a back five (5-4-1) to stifle stronger opponents and a 4-2-3-1 when they want to impose themselves. That tactical flexibility has started to pay off, especially at Al-Hazem Club Stadium, where they can be more proactive.
Al-Qadisiyah FC are 5th with 27 points from just 13 games, clearly the more successful side over the season. However, their last 10 matches (2W-2D-6L) tell a very different story. They’ve scored 11 but conceded a worrying 27 goals (2.7 per game). That’s relegation-level defensive form, masked by a couple of big wins.
The recent 5-0 demolition of Al-Fayha and a 4-0 victory over Al Riyadh show just how explosive Míchel’s team can be when everything clicks. But the heavy concession rate underlines a side that lives on the edge, often overcommitting and leaving the back three badly exposed.
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Tactical Analysis
Qaderi’s recent blueprint has become clearer. With Bruno Varela in goal and a defensive line typically built around Sultan Tanker and A. Boutouil, Al-Hazm can defend their box aggressively. S. Al Rashid and Ahmed Al Nakhli offer width and energy from full-back, while the double pivot of Basil Al Sayyali and L. Rosier provides balance—one sitter, one shuttler.
Ahead of them, Fábio Martins and A. Sayoud bring creativity and unpredictability. Martins attacks from the left, cutting inside to shoot or combine, while Sayoud operates between the lines as a classic No. 10. N. Al Habashi stretches play on the right and can drive at wing-backs, which will be particularly important against Al-Qadisiyah’s 3-5-2.
Up front, Omar Al Somah remains a huge reference point. Even if he’s not as mobile as in his peak years, his penalty-box instincts and aerial presence give Al-Hazm a direct outlet, especially against a back three that has been conceding a high volume of chances.
For Al-Qadisiyah, Míchel’s preferred 3-5-2 is built around a powerful spine: Koen Casteels in goal, the experience of Nacho and the aggression of Gastón Álvarez at the back, and a robust midfield featuring N. Nández and J. Weigl. The wing-backs, particularly Mohammed Abu Al Shamat on the right and Yasir Al Shahrani on the left, push high to pin opponents back.
The front pair of J. Quiñones and M. Retegui is one of the better tandems in the league: Retegui offers movement and finishing, while Quiñones can drop off, link play, and attack space. When Al-Qadisiyah build cleanly through midfield, they can look unstoppable. The problem is the risk they take—if possession is lost, the wide areas behind the wing-backs are ripe for counters, exactly where Al-Hazm like to break with Martins and Al Habashi.
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Key Players Missing and Squad Depth
Officially, there is no confirmed list of injuries or suspensions for either side, which suggests both managers may have near full-strength squads available. That in itself is significant.
For Al-Hazm, having Bruno Varela, Boutouil, Tanker, Rosier, Martins, Sayoud, and Al Somah all available gives Qaderi his core spine. If any one of these were missing, the game plan would look very different: without Varela their build-up from the back would be more conservative, without Martins they’d lack a natural ball-carrying outlet on the left, and without Somah they’d have far less aerial threat on crosses against a back three.
On the Al-Qadisiyah side, the presence of Casteels, Nacho, Álvarez, Weigl, Nández, and the Retegui–Quiñones duo is critical. They rely heavily on the chemistry of that central block. If, for instance, Nacho were sidelined, the back line would lose leadership and anticipation, making their already leaky defense even more vulnerable. Likewise, absence of either Retegui or Quiñones would drastically reduce their cutting edge.
Because we are assuming minimal absences, the match is likely to be decided less by depth and more by execution and tactical discipline. But keep an eye on late news: any last-minute knock to a key defender or striker could swing the balance, especially given how fragile Al-Qadisiyah have been at the back.
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Head-to-Head Insights
Across the last five meetings, Al-Hazm hold a slight advantage: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat, with goals level at 7-7. That tells two stories:
- Matches tend to be competitive and relatively open.
- Al-Hazm have a small psychological edge, especially when playing in front of their own fans.
The even goal tally supports the idea that both teams are likely to find the net, but without one side clearly dominating. This aligns well with our 2-1 prediction—tight margins, decided by which defense holds its nerve longest.
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Expected Goals (xG) Analysis
We don’t have full xG datasets here, but we can approximate based on scoring and conceding patterns:
- Al-Hazm: 1.2 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game in their last 10.
- Al-Qadisiyah: 1.1 goals scored and 2.7 conceded per game in their last 10.
Translating that into estimated xG:
- Al-Hazm’s attack likely sits around 1.3–1.4 xG per match, with defensive xG conceded in the 1.7–1.9 range.
- Al-Qadisiyah’s attack feels closer to 1.4–1.5 xG, given some big wins, but their defensive xG conceded could be 2.2–2.4 considering the volume and quality of chances they’ve allowed.
The key takeaway from this xG analysis is the xG differential trend:
- Al-Hazm: slightly negative, but improving recently.
- Al-Qadisiyah: sharply negative in the last 10, with conceded chances outstripping their attacking output.
That negative xG differential for Al-Qadisiyah suggests their early-season points haul is unsustainable unless they tighten up defensively. For this specific match, the xG profiles point towards a game with a decent number of chances on both ends, but with Al-Hazm less likely to be overrun than the league table alone would imply.
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Predicted Outcome
Balancing league position, form, head-to-head, and tactical matchups, the projection is:
- Al-Hazm win: 39%
- Draw: 28%
- Al-Qadisiyah win: 33%
And a predicted scoreline of 2-1 to Al-Hazm.
We also project around a 63% chance that both teams score and a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals, which fits the attacking strengths and defensive weaknesses on show.
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Value Bets vs 1xBet Market
There are no explicit 1xBet odds provided here, so we have to reason in general terms about value.
Given our probabilities:
- If the market prices Al-Qadisiyah as clear favourites (e.g., strong odds-on), that would overrate their chances relative to their recent defensive collapse. In that case, Al-Hazm double chance (1X) or Al-Hazm draw-no-bet could offer value.
- With BTTS (Both Teams To Score) at around 63% in our model, if bookmakers imply 55% or lower (e.g., odds above 1.80), BTTS-Yes becomes a potential value angle.
- For totals, our 62% projection for over 2.5 goals suggests moderate value if the market is cautious (e.g., closer to a coin flip at 2.00 odds). However, because both coaches can switch to more conservative setups, the safest line is over 1.5 goals as the core parlay/anchor.
Without live prices, the standout conceptual value lies on Al-Hazm-related outcomes at home, particularly if the book still leans heavily toward the 5th-placed side on league position alone.
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Asian Handicap Recommendations
Based on a predicted one-goal margin (2-1 Al-Hazm), the Asian Handicap angles look like this:
- Al-Hazm 0.0 (Draw-No-Bet): This is the most balanced option. Our 39% home win probability versus 33% away win and 28% draw suggests there is room for value if prices are close to even. You win if Al-Hazm edge it, get your stake back on a draw.
- Al-Hazm -0.25: Slightly more aggressive. Half your stake on -0, half on -0.5. A draw results in a half-loss, but better returns on a home win. This makes sense if odds on the home side are generous.
- Al-Qadisiyah +0.5 or +0.25: Only becomes interesting if the market does the opposite of our model and heavily favours Al-Hazm. Given their defensive issues, we’re not keen on backing Al-Qadisiyah with a negative handicap line away.
With our expected margin thin, Al-Hazm 0.0 AH is the clearest recommendation, striking a good balance between risk and reward while aligning with the 2-1 prediction.
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Key Players to Watch
- Al-Hazm: Bruno Varela’s shot-stopping and distribution, A. Boutouil and Sultan Tanker’s organisation at the back, L. Rosier’s box-to-box energy, Fábio Martins’ dribbling and creativity, and Omar Al Somah’s finishing.
- Al-Qadisiyah: Koen Casteels to keep them in the game, Nacho’s leadership in the back three, Nández and Weigl’s midfield control, and the Retegui–Quiñones partnership that can punish any defensive lapse.
Expect a match where both front lines get their chances, but the side that manages transitions and set pieces better—Al-Hazm, on current evidence—has the slight edge.
