Al Najma vs Al-Fateh Match Preview
This Pro League clash brings together the bottom side, Al Najma, and mid-table Al-Fateh in what looks like a classic case of survival desperation versus relative stability. On form, structure and squad quality, José Gomes’ Al-Fateh go in as justified favourites.
Al Najma are rooted to 18th with just 2 points from 14 matches, while Al-Fateh sit 10th on 20 points. The gap in performance over the first third of the season is reflected in both the league table and the underlying numbers, and that frames our prediction of a narrow but deserved away win.
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Team Form and Recent Performance
Al Najma arrive in dire form: 0 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats in their last 10, scoring 11 and conceding 20 (1.1 for, 2.0 against per game). The recent three-game spell tells a story of mild attacking improvement but persistent defensive problems:
- 3–2 vs Al-Hazm (loss)
- 3–4 vs Al-Ettifaq (loss)
- 2–2 vs Al Khaleej Saihat (draw)
They’ve scored eight in those three, but shipped eight as well. Mário Silva has tried various shapes – 3-4-3, 5-3-2 and 4-1-4-1 – searching for a balance he still hasn’t found.
Al-Fateh are inconsistent but clearly stronger: 3W-1D-6L over their last 10, with 12 goals scored and 18 conceded (1.2 for, 1.8 against). The most recent games are encouraging:
- 3–1 win vs Al Riyadh
- Narrow 0–1 loss vs NEOM
- 2–0 win vs Al Shabab
That run shows they can both score freely against weaker defences and keep clean sheets when they control midfield.
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Tactical Analysis
Under Mário Silva, Al Najma’s tactical identity is still in flux. The one-off 4-1-4-1 used against Al-Hazm looked closer to a coherent plan: D. Flores as the single pivot, D. Tijanič and Rakan Al Tulayhi as energetic interiors, with B. Boutobba and A. Jasim supporting lone striker Lázaro.
Key themes for Al Najma:
- Fragile defensive structure: Rotation between back three and back four has harmed cohesion. Samir and N. Al Haleel are usually central, but full-back roles keep changing.
- Dependence on transitions: Lázaro’s direct running and Boutobba’s dribbling are critical. When forced into settled possession, they lack patterns and often lose the ball in dangerous zones.
- Set-piece vulnerability: Conceding roughly two goals per game, many from second phases where the back line fails to clear.
For José Gomes, Al-Fateh have settled into a 3-4-1-2 / 3-4-2-1 hybrid:
- Back three of Ziyad Al Jari, Jorge Fernandes and M. Saâdane gives aerial strength and decent build-up.
- Wing-backs Saeed Baattia and F. Darisi provide width and constant outlets in transition.
- Midfield engine: Z. Youssouf and N. Masoud combine defensive bite with forward passing, allowing the front three freedom.
- Attack: Matías Vargas operates between the lines, linking play to forwards Mourad Batna and Abdullah Al Anazi or rotating with S. Bendebka.
This structure should exploit Al Najma’s shaky defensive spacing, particularly in wide areas and in transitions when Najma’s full-backs are caught high.
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Key Players and Attacking Threats
For Al Najma:
- Lázaro – Main goal threat, playing as a mobile striker. His movement off the shoulder of the last defender is their best route to high-quality chances.
- B. Boutobba – Creative hub from wide or half-spaces, capable of beating his man and delivering cutbacks.
- D. Tijanič & D. Flores – Provide the passing link and defensive coverage in midfield; when they’re overrun, the whole structure collapses.
For Al-Fateh:
- Matías Vargas – The primary creator, receiving between lines and feeding runners. If he finds space behind Najma’s midfield, the hosts will struggle.
- Mourad Batna – Experienced forward who times his runs well and can finish from distance or in the box.
- Z. Youssouf – Controls tempo, breaks up play and starts counters. His duel with Tijanič/Flores is central to the match.
Given both teams’ defensive records, there’s a strong case for both teams scoring. Al Najma have scored in each of their last three, and Al-Fateh concede 1.8 per game over the last 10.
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Missing Key Players and Squad Availability
The official injury and suspension information currently lists no absentees for either side. That suggests both coaches can select close to their strongest XI.
For Al Najma, that continuity matters because:
- They can keep the central defensive pairing of Samir and N. Al Haleel together.
- The Flores–Tijanič midfield axis, essential for any control they have, should start again.
- Their attacking trio of Lázaro, Boutobba and Jasim can continue to build chemistry.
For Al-Fateh:
- A settled back three (Ziyad Al Jari, Jorge Fernandes, M. Saâdane) can continue, vital against Najma’s direct attacks.
- Key creators like Vargas and Batna look available and in rhythm.
Because no major starters are clearly ruled out, there’s no injury-related factor dramatically tilting the balance. The edge for Al-Fateh comes more from cohesion and quality than from opponent absences.
If late news were to remove one of Vargas/Batna or Lázaro/Boutobba, it would significantly reduce that team’s attacking ceiling and could pull the expected goals total down. In the current context, however, we’re working with near-full-strength squads.
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Expected Goals (xG) Analysis
We can approximate xG trends from recent scoring and conceding patterns:
- Al Najma: 1.1 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game over the last 10.
- Al-Fateh: 1.2 scored and 1.8 conceded over the last 10.
Given these numbers and the quality of chances typically created by these styles:
- Al Najma’s xG for likely sits around 1.1–1.3 per match, with an xG against closer to 1.8–2.0. They allow plenty of shots and big chances.
- Al-Fateh’s xG for is probably around 1.3–1.5, with xG against in the 1.5–1.7 range.
The xG differential therefore favours Al-Fateh slightly (roughly +0.1 to +0.2 per game compared to their opponent here), consistent with their mid-table position versus Najma’s relegation fight.
The combined expected goals profile of this matchup comfortably exceeds 2.5 xG, pointing towards a scoreline with at least three goals more often than not. That aligns with our 2–1 prediction and underpins the recommendation on over 2.5 goals.
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Predicted Outcome and Scoreline
Taking form, tactics and xG estimates together, the most likely script is:
- Al-Fateh control more of the ball and create the clearer chances.
- Al Najma rely on transitions and individual moments from Lázaro or Boutobba.
- Both defences concede opportunities, but Al-Fateh’s structure holds slightly better.
Predicted score: Al Najma 1–2 Al-Fateh.
We assign probabilities of:
- Home win: 27%
- Draw: 26%
- Away win: 47%
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Value Bet Recommendations (1xBet Odds)
Comparing our model with the 1xBet prices:
- Match result (1X2):
- Al Najma 3.32
- Draw 3.50
- Al-Fateh 1.95
Al-Fateh at 1.95 implies roughly a 51% chance. Our model gives them 47%, so the away win price is close to fair value, maybe slightly short. No huge edge, but still the most logical side.
More interesting:
- Over 2.5 goals: 1.62 (implied ~61%) vs our 66% probability. Small but real value on over 2.5.
- Both teams to score – Yes: 1.53 (implied ~65%) vs our 69% probability. Again, modest value leaning towards BTTS Yes.
Best value angles:
- Over 2.5 goals
- Both Teams to Score (Yes)
- Combining Al-Fateh + BTTS (if priced attractively in same-game combos) fits the projected 2–1 pattern.
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Asian Handicap Predictions
We don’t have a full Asian handicap line set, but we can infer sensible options from the 1x2 market and our scoreline prediction.
Given we project a one-goal margin (2–1 Al-Fateh):
- Al-Fateh -0.25 (DNB split): Good compromise. You win fully if they win, lose half if it’s a draw. Our 47% away win and 26% draw give this a solid expected value if priced near even money.
- Al-Fateh -0.5: Equivalent to backing the straight away win. Reasonable but not outstanding value at 1.95.
- Al Najma +0.5 or +0.75: Not attractive given their 0W-2D-8L run and defensive leaks. Our model doesn’t see enough draw probability to justify siding with the hosts.
Based on the predicted margin, Al-Fateh -0.25 or a conservative Al-Fateh 0 (draw no bet) would be the most sensible Asian Handicap approaches if prices are in line with or slightly better than the 1x2 odds.
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Conclusion
Al Najma come into this clash desperate and still searching for structure, while Al-Fateh have a clearer identity and more reliable spine under José Gomes. With both teams prone to defensive lapses but the away side stronger in midfield and attack, a 2–1 Al-Fateh win with goals at both ends is the most probable outcome.
From a betting standpoint, the straight away win is logical but not massively mispriced; the real edge lies in the goals markets – particularly over 2.5 and BTTS Yes – and in cautiously backing Al-Fateh on the Asian Handicap around -0.25/0.
