Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC prediction
Predicted score: Al Riyadh 0-2 Al-Qadisiyah FC (~76% away win). Al-Qadisiyah’s superior season record and stronger scoring numbers make them clear favourites, though their recent three-match spell has been less convincing than their 10-match form.
Why Al-Qadisiyah are favoured
Al-Qadisiyah FC sit third with 25 points from 11 matches, while Al Riyadh are 11th with 12 points from 10. Across their last 10 matches, Brendan Rodgers’ side have won six, drawn three and lost once, averaging 2.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. Al Riyadh’s record is 4-3-3, with 1.1 goals scored and 1.5 allowed per game.
The head-to-head sample also favours the visitors: Al Riyadh have won once and lost four of the last five meetings, scoring three goals and conceding 12. That history supports the away lean, though it is a small sample and does not guarantee the same pattern in this fixture.
Recent results and the main caveat
Al Riyadh arrive with encouraging results in their last three supplied fixtures: a 2-1 win over Al Taawon on October 24, a 1-0 win over Al Diriyah on October 20, and a 1-1 draw with Al-Fayha on October 11. Mauricio Dulac’s side have shown they can win tight games, but those results still sit alongside a last-10 average of 1.5 goals conceded.
Al-Qadisiyah’s last three listed matches were a 1-1 draw with Al Sadd on October 26, a 2-3 loss to Al-Hilal on October 23 and a 0-1 loss to Al Taawon on October 20. That is a less forceful sequence than their broader record, and a reason not to treat the 1X2 price of 1.25 as a certainty. Their recent 3-5-2 lineups have repeatedly included J. Quiñones and M. Retegui up front, giving them a consistent attacking pairing to build around.
Team news and projected lineups
No injury or suspension data is available, and the current lineups have not been announced; that means no specific absence can be confirmed or ruled out. The projected XIs are based on the supplied squad lists and recent selections, not confirmed team news.
Al Riyadh used a 4-3-3 against Al Taawon on October 24 after also starting in a 4-4-1-1 and 4-2-3-1 in the two earlier listed matches. A return to the latest 4-3-3 is a projection: V. Lekhal, K. Keita and B. Mensah could form the midfield, with T. Okou and Trézéguet supporting a projected central forward. The available squad list does not include H. Al Shurafa, who appeared in that last XI, so M. Sylla is a possible replacement projection rather than a confirmed selection.
Al-Qadisiyah have used a 3-5-2 in all three recent lineups supplied. Keeping that shape would preserve continuity for J. Weigl in midfield and the Quiñones-Retegui partnership, with the wing-back roles offering a route to stretch Al Riyadh’s back four. These roles are tactical projections; the starting XI is unconfirmed.
Goal model and value bets
The supplied baseline estimates 0.48 goals for Al Riyadh and 2.36 for Al-Qadisiyah. I leave the home estimate unchanged and modestly reduce the away figure to 2.17: the visitors scored three goals across their last three listed matches, below their 2.2-per-game average across the last 10. These are model goal estimates, not measured shot-based xG.
- Al Riyadh
- 0.51
- Al-Qadisiyah FC
- 2.29
Pre-match model estimates of goals scored, not measured shot-based xG or an exact-score forecast.
Al-Qadisiyah at 1.25 is a short price against a model that still gives them a 78% away-win probability. The clearest potential discrepancy is over 2.5 goals at 2.91: the adjusted model has a slight under lean, despite the market favouring over 2.5 at 1.37. The under is therefore a value lean, not a high-certainty call; the model’s total is close to the 2.5 threshold.
| Outcome | Model chance | Decimal odds |
|---|---|---|
| Al Riyadh | 7.0% | 9.20 |
| Draw | 15.0% | 6.13 |
| Al-Qadisiyah FC | 78.0% | 1.25 |
Prices saved at generation time, not live odds. Bookmaker margin is included in quoted prices; model disagreement does not guarantee value.