FC Juarez vs Club Queretaro prediction
Predicted score: FC Juarez 0-1 Club Queretaro; Queretaro have a 49% away-win probability in this estimate. Juarez’s poor recent scoring and their position at the bottom of the supplied standings make the visitors the stronger pick, though Queretaro’s defensive record leaves room for a tight game.
Why Queretaro have the edge
Club Queretaro are ninth with 20 points from 13 matches, while FC Juarez are 18th with five points from 14. The recent 10-match samples tell a similar story: Juarez are 1W-2D-7L, scoring 0.7 goals per game and conceding 2.0; Queretaro are 4W-2D-4L, averaging 1.2 scored and 1.4 conceded.
The head-to-head sample also favors Queretaro: Juarez have one win, one draw and three defeats across the last five meetings, with 0.8 goals scored per match. That record is supporting evidence rather than a guarantee, but it adds weight to the away lean.
Goal estimate and betting value
The adjusted model estimates 0.94 goals for FC Juarez and 1.43 for Club Queretaro. These are model goal estimates, not shot-based xG; together they point toward a lower-scoring match and support the 0-1 forecast.
- FC Juarez
- 0.99
- Club Queretaro
- 1.51
Pre-match model estimates of goals scored, not measured shot-based xG or an exact-score forecast.
At the supplied pre-match prices, Queretaro are 2.24 to win. That offers a potential value angle against the model’s 48% away-win estimate, although the draw remains a meaningful risk. The draw-no-bet price of 1.65 is a more cautious way to back the visitors. Under 2.5 at 2.02 also looks worth consideration: the model gives the under a 58% probability. These are model-based comparisons, not guarantees about available prices elsewhere.
| Outcome | Model chance | Decimal odds |
|---|---|---|
| FC Juarez | 25.0% | 2.88 |
| Draw | 26.0% | 3.50 |
| Club Queretaro | 49.0% | 2.24 |
Prices saved at generation time, not live odds. Bookmaker margin is included in quoted prices; model disagreement does not guarantee value.
Team news and projected lineups
No injury or suspension details are available, and the starting lineups have not been announced; that means no specific absence can be confirmed, not that either squad is fully fit. The likely XIs are projections based on the previous three match lineups and the current squad lists.
Gustavo Lema’s Juarez have used a 4-2-3-1 in each of their last three supplied matches. S. Jurado, J. Murillo, G. Sepúlveda, D. Piña and Ó. Estupiñán featured throughout that run; F. Nevárez, Rodrigo Dourado, Madson, Guilherme Castilho and J. Rodríguez are projected around them. Eduardo Gonzalez Herrera Esteban’s Queretaro have also repeatedly used a 4-2-3-1, with G. Allison, L. Abascia, D. Parra, E. Giménez, M. Coronel and A. Ávila recurring in the recent selections. Those patterns make the shape a reasonable projection, not a confirmed team sheet.
What could upset the prediction
Queretaro have conceded 14 goals in their last 10 matches, so Juarez could take advantage if their attacking output rises above its recent 0.7-goal average. With no availability information and no confirmed lineups, late selection news could also affect the balance. For now, the league gap and recent form still make Queretaro the more persuasive side, with under 2.5 the secondary lean.