Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ettifaq Preview (Pro League 2025)
Al-Ittihad and Al-Ettifaq meet at King Abdullah Sports City in what looks like a classic top-half battle between two sides that attack well but defend very differently. On balance, the data and context point toward a narrow Al-Ittihad win in a game where both teams should find the net.
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Team Form and Momentum
Al-Ittihad FC arrive in good shape: 7 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 10, scoring 20 and conceding just 9. That 2.0 goals-for and 0.9 goals-against profile shows a team that is not only dangerous going forward but increasingly controlled without the ball.
The recent run under Sérgio Conceição has been consistent in structure: three straight matches in a 4-2-3-1 with an unchanged back five (Rajković, Al Shanqiti, Danilo Pereira, Sharahili, Kadesh) and the Kanté–Fabinho double pivot. Even in the 1-1 draw with Damac, they largely dictated territory and chances.
Al-Ettifaq, under Saad Al Shehri, are more volatile. Their last 10 read 4W-3D-3L with 21 scored (2.1 per game) and 16 conceded (1.6 per game). Matches like the 3-4 loss to Al Najma and the 1-2 defeat to Al Khaleej Saihat highlight exactly who they are right now: a side that can punch hard in attack but leaves too many gaps defensively.
With just five points separating them in the table (Al-Ittihad 6th on 27, Al-Ettifaq 7th on 22), this is a genuine six-pointer in the scrap for the upper European/continental places in the Pro League hierarchy.
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Tactical Match-Up
Conceição has clearly decided his base is a 4-2-3-1. The back four is fairly traditional: full-backs Al Shanqiti and Kadesh offer width but don’t bomb on recklessly, while Danilo Pereira and Sharahili provide experience and physicality in central defence.
In front of them, the double pivot is usually N’Golo Kanté plus Fabinho. Kanté still covers an incredible amount of ground, breaking play and knitting transitions, while Fabinho sits more, screens the back four and recycles possession. Ahead of them, the trio of Diaby (right), Bergwijn (left) and a central creator behind Karim Benzema gives Al-Ittihad a mix of pace, dribbling, and high-level link-up play.
Al-Ettifaq, by contrast, have been tactically fluid:
- 3-5-2 vs Al Okhdood (2-0 win)
- 3-1-4-2 vs Al Najma (4-3 defeat)
- 4-2-3-1 vs Al Khaleej Saihat (2-1 loss)
The constants are Marek Rodák in goal, a central defensive unit around Jack Hendry and Abdulbaset Hindi, and a midfield built on Ondrej Duda and Mukhtar Ali. Further forward, Georginio Wijnaldum and Álvaro Medrán drift between lines to support Moussa Dembélé.
This flexibility is a double-edged sword. It can cause problems for opponents who prepare for one shape and see another, but it also suggests Al Shehri is still searching for the perfect balance. Against an organised, well-drilled 4-2-3-1, any confusion in Ettifaq’s defensive rotations can be brutally exposed by Diaby and Bergwijn attacking the half-spaces.
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Key Players to Watch
Al-Ittihad FC
- Karim Benzema (#9) – Even at 38, he remains the reference point. Drops off the front line, overloads midfield and then appears in the box at the right time. Against Hendry and Hindi, his movement could be decisive.
- Moussa Diaby (#19) – Direct, explosive and constantly running at full-backs. Al-Ettifaq’s recent issues down the flanks make his duel with Abdullah Khateeb or Al Olayan a crucial battleground.
- N. Kanté (#7) – The engine in midfield. His positioning and interceptions will be vital, especially with Fabinho missing and Al-Ettifaq carrying multiple central runners.
Al-Ettifaq
- Moussa Dembélé (#9) – The main goal threat. Strong, good in the air, but also sharp in the box. If Al-Ettifaq manage to deliver quality service, he can punish any lapse.
- G. Wijnaldum (#8) – Nominally advanced, but excels in late runs from midfield. His timing between Kanté and the centre-backs will test Al-Ittihad’s midfield cover.
- Álvaro Medrán (#10) – The creative metronome. Switches play, finds pockets, and can slide Dembélé in behind if Al-Ittihad’s line pushes excessively high.
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Missing Key Players and Their Impact
This match may be shaped as much by who is absent as by who plays.
For Al-Ittihad, the big issue is Fabinho. His recent sending-off makes his suspension almost certain here. Fabinho’s role is deceptively simple but crucial: he holds position, screens passing lanes, and allows Kanté to hunt the ball more aggressively. Without him:
- The double pivot loses its most natural sitter.
- Kanté may be forced into a more conservative role.
- The centre-backs could see more direct pressure from Wijnaldum and Dembélé dropping into pockets.
The likely solution is someone like Awad Al Nashri or Faisal Al Ghamdi stepping in. Both are energetic and technically sound, but neither offers quite the same level of positional discipline as the Brazilian. That tilt in balance is one of the main reasons we expect Al-Ettifaq to create enough to get on the scoresheet.
There is also a cloud over Kanté’s medium-term future, with advanced talks over a move abroad. Even if he starts, management may lean toward protecting his minutes or avoiding risky overloads. That, again, can shave a bit off Al-Ittihad’s usual midfield dominance.
For Al-Ettifaq, there is no explicit injury or suspension list here, so we assume near full availability among the regulars. Stability in their core (Rodák, Hendry, Hindi, Duda, Mukhtar Ali, Dembélé) is a clear plus, especially against a midfield missing Fabinho.
Overall, the absence of Fabinho slightly narrows the gap between the teams, increasing the likelihood of Al-Ettifaq scoring and keeping the scoreline tight, but it doesn’t completely flip the edge away from Al-Ittihad.
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Head-to-Head Insights
The last five meetings give a slight but noticeable edge to Al-Ittihad:
- Record: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss
- Goals: Al-Ittihad 11 (2.2 per game), Al-Ettifaq 8 (1.6 per game)
Those numbers broadly mirror the current offensive profiles of the two teams and point to a pattern of high-ish scoring but largely controlled by Al-Ittihad, especially when they can dictate tempo and play off their attacking quality.
A one-goal margin has often been the separator between these sides, which aligns well with a 2-1 type outcome.
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Expected Goals (xG) Analysis
We don’t have full shot maps here, but we can infer xG trends from the scoring and conceding patterns.
- Al-Ittihad: 2.0 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per match over the last 10 suggest something like 1.8–2.0 xG for and 0.9–1.1 xG against on average. They rarely get involved in total shootouts; instead, they create a handful of good chances and concede relatively few.
- Al-Ettifaq: 2.1 scored and 1.6 conceded scream volatility. That points toward roughly 1.7–1.9 xG for and 1.4–1.7 xG against. Their xG differential is probably positive but not dominant, hinting at a team that goes toe-to-toe rather than controlling games.
The xG differential edge goes to Al-Ittihad: stronger defence, roughly comparable attack. Over a single match, that translates to a slightly greater likelihood of converting pressure into goals while limiting high-quality chances at the other end.
Put simply:
- We’d expect the total match xG to land around 3.0–3.4, supporting a lean to over 2.5 goals.
- Al-Ittihad’s superior xG against and defensive structure underpin the prediction of a 2-1 home win, rather than a wild 3-3 or 4-3.
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Predicted Outcome
Bringing form, tactics, missing players and xG together:
- Most likely result: Al-Ittihad 2-1 Al-Ettifaq
- Match winner probabilities:
- Al-Ittihad win: ~52%
- Draw: ~25%
- Al-Ettifaq win: ~23%
We expect Al-Ettifaq’s attack – powered by Dembélé and Wijnaldum – to trouble an Al-Ittihad midfield missing Fabinho, but Benzema’s craft and the pace out wide should have just enough to tilt the balance.
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Value Bet Recommendations (1xBet Context)
No specific 1xBet odds are listed here, so we judge value purely from probabilities.
Based on our model:
- Al-Ittihad to win (home win)
- Implied probability: 52%
- If 1xBet priced the home win at odds longer than about 1.92 (52% implied), that would represent value.
- Both Teams to Score – Yes
- Probability: 68%
- Any odds above 1.47 would be mathematically attractive. Given Al-Ettifaq’s attacking output and Fabinho’s absence, BTTS looks like one of the better angles.
- Over 2.5 Goals
- Probability: 62%
- That equates to fair odds around 1.61. If the market sits closer to 1.70 or higher, the over would be a strong value candidate.
If 1xBet leans heavily on Al-Ittihad’s defensive numbers and prices the overs too conservatively, there could be clear value in both BTTS and over 2.5, with a slightly safer tilt toward BTTS given the match-up.
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Asian Handicap Predictions
With a predicted 2-1 home win (one-goal margin), Asian Handicap becomes particularly useful.
Key lines to consider:
- Al-Ittihad -0.5 (equivalent to simple home win)
- Our 52% home-win probability justifies this line as a reasonable play if the odds are not too short.
- Al-Ittihad -0.75
- Here, half your stake is on -0.5 and half on -1. A one-goal win (our most likely outcome) yields a half win, which aligns nicely with the prediction. This line makes sense if you want a bit more price than the straight -0.5 but still respect that the game could be tight.
- Al-Ittihad -1.0
- This requires a two-goal win to fully profit; a one-goal victory only returns your stake. With our model pointing strongly to a one-goal margin, -1.0 is more aggressive and not the best-fit line.
Given the probabilities, the best balance of risk and reward likely sits around Al-Ittihad -0.5 or -0.75. If 1xBet offers a notably bigger price on -0.75 relative to -0.5, that’s where the value may lie, as our expectation centres on a narrow but clear home edge.
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Summary
Al-Ittihad are the more solid, structured side and have the better defensive metrics, while Al-Ettifaq bring unpredictability and attacking punch. The absence of Fabinho opens the door for Al-Ettifaq to score, but Benzema and the wide threats should ultimately make the difference.
Predicted score: Al-Ittihad 2-1 Al-Ettifaq, with strong consideration for home win, BTTS, and cautious interest in over 2.5 goals and Al-Ittihad -0.75 Asian Handicap.
