Bologna vs Monza prediction
Predicted score: Bologna 1-2 Monza. The model gives Bologna a 36% win chance, a 23% draw chance and Monza a 41% chance, making this a narrow away lean rather than a high-confidence call. Both teams have been conceding regularly, and Bologna's listed attacking absences add to the case for Monza to get chances.
Why Monza can make the most of the attacking absences
Monza's output has been stronger than Bologna's in the supplied last-10-match sample: 18 goals at 1.8 per game, compared with Bologna's 12 at 1.2. The visitors have also conceded more—20 goals, or 2.0 per match—so this points toward an open game, not a safe clean sheet. Bologna's figures are 13 conceded, 1.3 per match.
Gustavo Varela is a clear threat: Ivan Juric praised the striker after Monza's 4-1 defeat to Napoli on 28 October, and the report on Juric's comments records eight Serie A goals in eight appearances. That match also showed the risk in backing Monza: they equalised through Varela after an encouraging first half, then gave Napoli openings after the break. Juric said his side had started gifting goals. Bologna, meanwhile, beat Milan 4-2 on 28 October, with Samuel Mbangula scoring a hat-trick, so the hosts have a recent attacking performance to counter the broader form numbers.
Team news and projected lineups
Bologna's injury list names R. Orsolini (thigh), R. Piccoli (hamstring), E. Holm (thigh), L. De Silvestri (muscle) and J. Enem (Achilles tendon) as unavailable. Orsolini's absence removes a forward option, while Piccoli was used up front in Bologna's 17 October lineup. Those losses may leave more of the goal burden with players such as Bernardeschi, Odgaard and Mbangula; that is a projection, not a confirmed selection. Zortea and Alhassane are projected as wing-backs based on Bologna's recent 3-4-3 shape.
Monza list M. Pessina (knee), Y. Maye (muscle) and J. Ziolkowski (foot) as injured, while M. Folorunsho is unavailable by coach's decision. Pessina's absence reduces a midfield option, and the listed injuries may narrow Juric's choices around the 3-4-2-1 used in each of Monza's last three lineups. Bakoune, Ondoa, Colombo, Mangas, Ngonge and Jay Robinson are projected to support Varela; the starting XI has not been announced.
Model goals and betting value
The supplied model baseline is 1.57 goals for Bologna and 1.60 for Monza. After a modest adjustment for Orsolini and Piccoli being listed out, the estimates are 1.48 for Bologna and 1.60 for Monza. These are model goal estimates, not measured shot-based xG. They suggest a close match with a slight Monza edge and support the 1-2 score prediction.
- Bologna
- 1.56
- Monza
- 1.69
Pre-match model estimates of goals scored, not measured shot-based xG or an exact-score forecast.
The odds make Bologna a clear market favourite at 1.76, with the draw at 3.99 and Monza at 5.09. That contrasts with the model's slight preference for the visitors. Monza +0.25 at 2.60 is the more cautious value angle: it also benefits from a draw, though it is not risk-free. Over 2.5 goals at 1.89 is a secondary lean, consistent with both teams' recent defensive records and the model's combined goal estimate.
| Outcome | Model chance | Decimal odds |
|---|---|---|
| Bologna | 36.0% | 1.76 |
| Draw | 23.0% | 3.99 |
| Monza | 41.0% | 5.09 |
Prices saved at generation time, not live odds. Bookmaker margin is included in quoted prices; model disagreement does not guarantee value.
The strongest reason to resist the Monza pick is the head-to-head record: Bologna have won three and drawn two of the last five meetings, scoring nine goals and conceding two. Bologna are also higher in the table, 11th on 11 points against Monza's 16th place and seven points. Those details keep the away prediction—and any bet on it—firmly in the modest-confidence category.