Udinese vs AS Roma prediction
Roma are the pick: predicted score Udinese 0-2 AS Roma, with a 73% away-win probability. The gap in the supplied last-10 records is substantial: Udinese are 2W-2D-6L with 11 goals, while Roma are 5W-4D-1L with 23. The lean is to a controlled away win rather than a high-margin result.
Why Roma are favoured, but a big win is less certain
Roma’s recent scoring and third place with 21 points from nine matches make them the stronger side on the supplied evidence. Udinese are 17th with five points after nine games, and their last three listed results were a 0-0 with Parma, a 0-2 loss to Milan and a 0-3 loss to Lecce. K. Runjaic’s side have managed only 1.1 goals per game across the last 10.
There are reasons not to make the prediction more emphatic. Udinese’s 0-0 against Parma on 28 October stopped a six-game losing streak; a Guardian report dated 29 October noted that M. Okoye saved a penalty in that match. Roma, meanwhile, drew 3-3 with Napoli before beating Cagliari 4-2. Those results show their attack can score, but also that recent matches have not always been comfortable defensively. Udinese have also lost four of the last five head-to-head meetings, scoring three goals in total.
Team news and projected lineups
The absences make Udinese’s team selection particularly uncertain and remove several options for Roma. Udinese’s D. Alaba, V. Bayo and I. Gueye are listed as unavailable; N. Bertola, O. Solet and A. Zanoli are questionable with muscle injuries. With Bayo out, K. Davis is the clearest projected centre-forward from Udinese’s recent lineups. Alaba’s absence reduces defensive options, while Solet’s availability could further affect the back three. The recent 3-4-2-1 is the basis for the projected shape, not a confirmed lineup.
Roma are without P. Dybala and L. Pellegrini, both potential sources of creative quality, and M. Koné is also listed out, reducing midfield options. M. Svilar is unavailable, but P. Gollini started Roma’s last three listed matches, so his projected start follows recent selection. M. Bah is also listed out. Roma’s recent 3-5-2, including Matías Soulé and S. Castro up front against Cagliari, is a plausible projection rather than a confirmed XI. The injuries may blunt Roma’s attacking options, one reason to favour a narrow score.
Goal estimates and betting value
The adjusted model estimates are about 0.51 goals for Udinese and 1.94 for Roma; these are model goal estimates, not measured shot-based xG. The low home estimate reflects Udinese’s recent scoring record, while Roma’s estimate is trimmed for the absences of Dybala and Pellegrini.
- Udinese
- 0.54
- AS Roma
- 2.04
Pre-match model estimates of goals scored, not measured shot-based xG or an exact-score forecast.
At 1.59, the Roma win price implies a lower chance than the model’s 73% away-win estimate, making the visitors the clearest 1X2 value lean. Under 2.5 is also worth consideration at 2.37, with the model making it likelier than over; BTTS No at 2.07 fits the same low Udinese scoring expectation. The 0-2 forecast points to a narrow margin, so the odds do not support chasing a large Roma handicap with the same confidence.