Como vs AC Milan Preview (Serie A, 15 January 2026)
This is exactly the kind of fixture that shows how far Como have come. A year ago, the idea of Cesc Fàbregas going head-to-head with AC Milan in a top‑six clash would have sounded fanciful; now it’s a genuine test of Milan’s title credentials.
Our baseline: Milan remain favourites thanks to their squad depth and quality, but Como’s form and defensive numbers are real. We project a tight game, with Milan edging it 2-1.
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Team Form and Momentum
Como arrive in excellent shape: 5 wins, 3 draws and only 2 defeats in their last 10 league outings. They’re averaging 1.5 goals scored and just 0.7 conceded in that span. That defensive record is the standout – Fàbregas has quickly given them a compact, well-drilled block that’s hard to break down, especially when they can control tempo through midfield.
Their recent run shows resilience as well as quality: a 1-0 grind against Udinese, a setback versus Pisa (0-3), then an organised response in the 1-1 draw with Bologna. They rarely get blown away; even when they lose, they stay in games.
AC Milan, under Marco Landucci, are more inconsistent: 3W-3D-4L over their last 10, with 0.9 goals for and 1.3 against. The numbers tell a story of a side whose attacking edge has dulled. They’re controlling large portions of matches but struggling to convert possession into high‑value chances, and defensive lapses are costing them points.
Two straight 1-1 draws (Genoa and Fiorentina) and a 0-1 loss at Cagliari paint a picture: Milan are not folding, but they’re not killing games off either.
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Tactical Match‑Up
Como: Structured and Flexible
Fàbregas has used both 4-2-3-1 and 4-3-3 in recent games. The spine is becoming familiar:
- GK: J. Butez – solid shot‑stopper, comfortable playing short.
- Defence: Van der Brempt, Kempf, Diego Carlos/Jacobo Ramón, Alberto Moreno. Moreno and Van der Brempt offer width and aggressive overlapping.
- Midfield: Caqueret and Perrone as the double pivot when it’s 4-2-3-1, with Lucas da Cunha and Nicolás Paz providing progression and creativity ahead.
- Attack: Tasos Douvikas as the reference point, supported by Jesús Rodríguez and da Cunha/Kühn in the half‑spaces.
Como look to build from the back, use their full‑backs to pin opponents wide, and rely on quick combinations between the lines. They’re not a high‑volume crossing team; instead they prefer cut-backs and late runs from deep.
AC Milan: 3-5-2 and Wing‑Back Width
Landucci has settled on a 3-5-2:
- Back three: Tomori, Gabbia, Pavlović/De Winter – proactive stepping into midfield but occasionally exposed on the turn.
- Wing‑backs: Saelemaekers and Estupiñán, key for stretching the pitch and feeding the front two.
- Midfield trio: Some mix of Modrić, Rabiot, Fofana, Ricci or Jashari. Modrić orchestrates and sets tempo; Rabiot offers vertical surges and aerial presence; Fofana/Ricci provide legs and pressing.
- Front line: Usually built around Rafael Leão and either Pulisic or Loftus‑Cheek acting as a second striker/roaming forward.
Expect Milan to have more of the ball and look to drag Como’s double pivot out of shape with rotations between Modrić and Rabiot. The key tactical question is whether Como’s full‑backs can get forward without being killed on the break by Leão and Pulisic in the channels.
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Key Players and Creative Threat
For Como, the attacking focal points are:
- T. Douvikas – good movement in the box, strong target for cut‑backs and near‑post runs.
- N. Paz – often operating as a No.10, he links midfield to attack, slipping balls into the half‑spaces.
- L. da Cunha & Jesús Rodríguez – bring dribbling and unpredictability between the lines.
On Milan’s side, the talent is obvious:
- Rafael Leão – the primary outlet, devastating when he can isolate his full‑back. His direct running can turn an even game in one action.
- C. Pulišić – intelligent movement, arrives in the box at the right time, and combines well in tight areas.
- L. Modrić – even at 40, still the conductor. His ability to find wing‑backs early and hit diagonal switches can shift Como’s block around.
- A. Rabiot – late runs, physical presence, and pressing intensity make him vital in a 3‑5‑2.
If Milan can get Leão and Pulišić running at Kempf and Diego Carlos in transition, Como will be under real strain.
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Missing Key Players and Injury Impact
This match is heavily shaped by who Milan don’t have at 100%.
- Niclas Füllkrug has suffered a fresh injury almost immediately into his Milan career. He’s exactly the profile they lack: a pure penalty‑box striker who thrives on crosses and scrappy chances. His absence means Milan must rely on fluid forwards rather than a true No.9, which lowers their likelihood of turning sustained pressure into ugly, close‑range goals.
- Rafael Leão is a doubt and not fully fit. Even if he makes the XI, it’s unrealistic to expect peak, 90‑minute explosiveness. Any limitation on his minutes or intensity directly reduces Milan’s ceiling – so much of their attacking threat flows from his ability to beat the first man and distort the opposition’s defensive shape.
Without a fit Füllkrug and with Leão short of full sharpness, Milan’s attack leans more on Pulisic, Loftus‑Cheek and midfield runners like Rabiot. That keeps them dangerous but more predictable.
For Como, there are no confirmed major injury blows in the data. That’s a big plus: Fàbregas can largely pick his best XI, and their understanding across the back line and in midfield is one of their strengths. If they get 90 minutes from their core – Butez, Kempf, Caqueret, Perrone, Paz and Douvikas – they’re fully capable of exploiting any Milan sloppiness.
Overall, the injury situation nudges the balance slightly back towards Como, making this closer than a typical second‑vs‑sixth clash, but Milan still have the deeper bench and individual match‑winners.
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Head-to-Head and Psychological Angle
Recent head‑to‑head data shows Milan with 2 wins and Como with none in the last five meetings, with Como conceding 2.0 goals per game on average. The sample is small and skewed by period, but Milan are used to these high‑pressure fixtures; many of their players have title races and European nights behind them.
Como are newer to this level of expectation. How they handle the occasion in front of a passionate home crowd will matter – there’s a thin line between high energy and over‑excitement leading to errors.
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Expected Goals (xG) Analysis
We can approximate xG trends from recent scoring data:
- Como: 1.5 goals scored and 0.7 conceded per game over the last 10 suggest an xG profile around 1.4–1.6 xG for and 0.9–1.1 xG against. They may be slightly overperforming defensively (conceding fewer than the chances they allow), thanks to good goalkeeping and block density.
- AC Milan: 0.9 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 10 matches point to something like 1.3–1.5 xG for and 1.2–1.4 xG against. That indicates underperformance in front of goal (wastefulness or outstanding opposition keepers) and some softness at the back.
The xG differential – roughly +0.3 to +0.5 for Como vs +0.0 to +0.1 for Milan in recent form – actually favours Como. However, Milan’s season‑long talent level and the likelihood of modest positive regression in finishing (especially if Leão plays meaningful minutes) tilt our model back towards a narrow away edge.
In xG terms, this looks like a 1.3–1.6 xG vs 1.5–1.8 xG type game – tight, relatively even, but with Milan slightly more likely to generate the higher‑quality shots.
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Predicted Outcome
Balancing form, xG, injuries, and squad quality, we project:
- Predicted score: Como 1–2 AC Milan
- Match probabilities:
- Como win: 32%
- Draw: 26%
- Milan win: 42%
We see Milan as favourites, but only marginally so – this is not a mismatch. Como’s defensive structure and home advantage should keep it close, and a draw is a very live possibility if Milan’s attack misfires again.
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Value Bets and 1xBet Market View
No specific 1xBet odds are provided for this fixture, but we can still outline where value is likely to appear once markets are known.
Given our probabilities:
- If the market prices Milan under 2.10 (≈48% implied), there’s little value on the away win.
- If Milan sit around 2.30–2.40 (≈42–44% implied), that would roughly match our projection and offer fair but not outstanding value.
- For both teams to score, our model is around 58% Yes. If BTTS Yes is priced above 1.80 (≈55% implied), that would edge into small value territory.
- On over/under 2.5 goals, we’re close to 50/50 (52% over, 48% under). Any big deviation from even-money on either side could offer a small angle, but we don’t see a strong edge here.
Most interesting angles (conceptually):
- Milan Draw No Bet / -0.25 Asian Handicap – our 42% away win and 26% draw make this attractive if the price is not too short.
- Both Teams to Score – Yes, provided the market doesn’t heavily overreact to Como’s defensive stats.
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Asian Handicap Predictions
With a projected one-goal Milan win (2-1), here’s how the likely Asian Handicap lines stack up:
- Milan -0.5: You need a straight Milan win. Our 42% away win probability suggests mild value if the odds are generous (e.g. above 2.30), but not a slam dunk.
- Milan -0.25: Half stake on Milan 0, half on Milan -0.5. This aligns best with our model: we expect Milan to avoid defeat more often than not, and they’re slightly more likely to win than draw. It reduces downside if Como hold out for a point.
- Milan 0 (Draw No Bet): Very safe version of the pro‑Milan stance. With Como capable of an upset, this is a solid but probably lower‑priced option.
- Como +0.5 / +0.25: These become interesting only if the market overvalues Milan’s name and posts a big price on Como. Given Como’s form, sharp money may gravitate their way, shortening those lines.
Our recommended Asian Handicap lean, based on the predicted 2-1 away win and narrow margin: Milan -0.25 as a balanced risk‑reward option, and Milan 0 (DNB) for more conservative bettors.
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Final Verdict
Como are no longer a soft touch; under Cesc Fàbregas they’re organised, brave on the ball and hard to break down. Milan, however, still have the deeper squad and more individual match‑winners, even with Füllkrug out and Leão not fully fit.
Expect a tight, tactical battle where Milan’s experience and moments of quality just about tilt the scales. Our call: Como 1–2 AC Milan, with modest value on Milan in the -0.25 Asian region and a reasonable look towards Both Teams to Score.
