Verona vs Bologna Preview (Serie A 2025)
Verona welcome Bologna to the Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi in a clash that pits a struggling relegation candidate against a solid mid-table side with European aspirations. On current form and underlying numbers, Bologna have the edge, but the margins suggest a tight, low-scoring encounter.
Our baseline projection: Bologna to win 1-0, in a game more about control and discipline than fireworks.
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Team Form and Context
Verona
Verona come into this fixture in deep trouble. Their last 10 matches read 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats, with only 10 goals scored (1.0 per game) and 17 conceded (1.7 per game). That output is entirely consistent with their league position: 19th with 13 points from 19 matches.
Under Paolo Zanetti, Verona have leaned into a back-three set-up (3-5-2 or 3-4-2-1) recently, trying to stop the bleeding. The 2-2 draw against Napoli showed they can still raise their level in one-off games, but defeats like 0-3 to Torino and 0-1 to Lazio highlight how often they’re second-best in both boxes.
The attack relies on physicality more than finesse. G. Orban and A. Sarr provide presence up front, while players like M. Frese, S. Serdar and R. Gagliardini push from midfield. Yet they still lack a consistent creative link who can unlock compact defenses.
Bologna
Bologna sit in a much more comfortable spot: 9th with 27 points from 19. Their last 10 show 3 wins, 4 draws, 3 losses, with 11 goals scored and 12 conceded. It’s a profile of a team that’s competitive almost every week, even when they don’t win.
Under Vincenzo Italiano, the system is well established: a 4-2-3-1 built on structured pressing, a double pivot that can keep the ball, and a fluid line of three behind the striker. Wins like the 3-1 over Inter show their ceiling; even in the 0-2 loss to Atalanta, there were stretches where Bologna controlled possession and territory.
The key here is consistency. Bologna rarely collapse defensively and often find a way to generate a few high-quality chances even when the scoreline is tight.
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Tactical Match-Up
Verona’s 3-5-2 vs Bologna’s 4-2-3-1
Zanetti has recently used:
- 3 centre-backs: combinations of Unai Núñez, V. Nelsson, A. Bella-Kotchap, N. Valentini
- Wing-backs: D. Bradarić on the left, D. Oyegoke or M. Frese on the right
- A central trio built on work rate and ball-winning: C. Niasse, R. Gagliardini, S. Serdar / A. Bernede
The idea is to crowd the middle and protect the box. However, Bologna’s 4-2-3-1 is well-suited to probe the gaps:
- Full-backs (N. Zortea, Juan Miranda) can pin back Verona’s wing-backs.
- The double pivot (R. Freuler + L. Ferguson) can dictate tempo and resist Verona’s press.
- The three behind the striker – often some mix of R. Orsolini, G. Fabbian, J. Rowe, N. Cambiaghi – can exploit spaces between the lines and pull Verona’s back three apart.
Expect Bologna to patiently circulate the ball, drag Verona side to side, and look for overloads on the flanks. Verona, on the other hand, will lean on transitions, long balls into Orban/Sarr, and set pieces.
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Key Missing Players and Their Impact
Verona – Tomás Suslov (Jumpers Knee)
Tomás Suslov is out with a knee problem, and his absence is more significant than it might appear on paper.
- Role: A technically sharp midfielder who can operate as a more advanced No. 8/10, progress the ball, and link midfield to attack.
- Impact when fit: He gives Verona a different profile – someone who can carry through pressure, combine with the forwards and create chances from half-spaces.
Without Suslov, Zanetti has had to rely on more functional midfielders – Gagliardini, Niasse, Serdar, Bernede – who are more about work rate and structure than invention. That reduces Verona’s creativity and forces them to go direct earlier, which suits Bologna’s organized back line.
The likely replacements are a more conservative trio in midfield, which may help defensively but makes Verona even more reliant on crosses and second balls. Against a team as compact as Bologna, that’s a tactical disadvantage.
Bologna – Jhon Lucumí (Out for Several Weeks)
On the Bologna side, Jhon Lucumí is sidelined for 3–4 weeks.
- Role: First-choice left-sided centre-back, comfortable on the ball and reliable in duels.
- Impact: He’s central to building out from the back and dealing with physical forwards.
His absence forces Italiano to lean more on T. Heggem and M. Vitík in central defense. While both are capable, Bologna do lose a bit of Lucumí’s composure and recovery pace.
That said, Bologna have already shown they can function with Heggem/Vitík combinations. The shape, pressing and midfield protection remain strong, so the drop-off is real but not dramatic. Against Verona’s somewhat predictable direct attacks, it’s manageable.
Overall, Verona’s loss of creativity (Suslov) hurts their already-limited attacking output more than Bologna’s loss of Lucumí damages their structure. This tilts the balance slightly further towards the visitors.
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Expected Goals (xG) Analysis
We can infer reasonable xG trends from recent scoring patterns:
- Verona: 10 goals scored and 17 conceded in the last 10 suggest an estimated xG profile of roughly 0.95–1.05 xG for and 1.5–1.7 xG against per match. They often create in bursts (like vs Napoli) but spend long phases pinned back.
- Bologna: 11 scored and 12 conceded over 10 implies about 1.1–1.2 xG for and 1.1–1.3 xG against. They tend to control shot quality better, both for and against.
The xG differential therefore is:
- Verona: about -0.5 xG per game
- Bologna: around 0.0 to +0.1 xG per game
In xG terms, that’s a sizeable gap. A team consistently losing the xG battle by half a goal per match, like Verona, typically remains in relegation trouble unless finishing luck dramatically swings.
Given Bologna’s ability to keep games in the 1–2 goal xG range and Verona’s struggles to create clean looks, the xG analysis supports a low-scoring match where Bologna generate slightly better chances and Verona are mostly limited to set pieces or long-range efforts.
This aligns neatly with a projected 1-0 away win, with total xG likely hovering around 1.6–1.9.
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Predicted Outcome and Scoreline
Pulling everything together:
- Verona’s poor form and negative xG differential
- Bologna’s structural stability and better midfield control
- The creative deficit for Verona without Suslov
- Bologna’s defensive reshuffle without Lucumí, but within a still-strong system
- Recent head-to-head edge for Bologna (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss in last 5)
We forecast:
- Most likely result: Bologna win
- Scoreline: Verona 0-1 Bologna
- Secondary outcomes: 0-0 or 1-1 if Verona manage to turn one of their few chances into a goal.
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Value Bets (1xBet Market View)
No specific 1xBet odds are provided here, but we can still identify where value is likely to lie based on our probabilities.
Our internal probabilities:
- Home (Verona): 29%
- Draw: 31%
- Away (Bologna): 40%
Given Bologna are away and not a traditional heavyweight, bookmakers may price this closer to a balanced or even slightly Verona-favoured line because of home advantage. If the market implies Bologna’s win chance is nearer 33% or lower, there is value on the away side.
Key angles:
- Bologna Draw-No-Bet (Asian 0): With Bologna at 40% to win and 31% for a draw, a no-risk-on-draw position on Bologna looks appealing.
- Under 2.5 Goals: We estimate around 54% for under 2.5. If bookmakers offer a line implying near 50% or less (evens or above), that becomes a sensible value play, given both sides’ modest scoring rates.
Both Teams to Score is close to a coin flip in our model (55% yes / 45% no), so the market will likely be efficient there; value might be limited unless the BTTS price is skewed heavily one way.
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Asian Handicap Predictions
With a predicted 1-0 Bologna win and only a modest overall edge, Asian Handicap markets are key:
- Bologna 0 (Draw-No-Bet): This is the safest pro-Bologna position. If they win, you collect; if it’s a draw, your stake is refunded. Given our 40% away win vs 29% home win, this line offers the best blend of risk and reward.
- Bologna -0.25: Slightly more aggressive. Half your stake on Bologna 0, half on Bologna -0.5. A draw means you only lose half your stake. With our model giving Bologna a small but clear edge, this is a reasonable option if the price is attractive.
- Bologna -0.5: This requires an outright away win. Given Verona’s desperation at home and the non-negligible 31% draw probability, this is higher risk. It can still be playable if the odds are generous, but we’d prioritize -0/0.0 or -0.25.
On the Verona side, Verona +0.5 or +0.25 only become interesting if the market grossly underrates them, which seems unlikely given the home factor.
Preferred Asian line: Bologna 0 (DNB), backed up by under 2.5 goals given the expected low xG environment.
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Key Players to Watch
- Lewis Ferguson (Bologna) – Drives the team from midfield, contributes in both boxes and often pops up with crucial goals or final passes. His duel with Verona’s central trio will define territory.
- Remo Freuler (Bologna) – The metronome in front of the back four. If he controls the tempo, Verona will struggle to build pressure.
- G. Orban & A. Sarr (Verona) – Verona’s best chance is to make this a physical battle and exploit any hesitation in a Lucumí-less Bologna back line.
- D. Bradarić (Verona) – Key for ball progression and width on the left; his crossing could be Verona’s main attacking outlet.
With the tactical landscape, injuries, and form all pointing in the same direction, Bologna are narrowly favoured to grind out a professional 1-0 away win.
