Pisa vs Atalanta Match Preview
Pisa welcome Atalanta to Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani in a clash that pits a relegation struggler against a side pushing for Europe. On paper, Atalanta under Ivan Juric have clear superiority, but both teams’ low scoring trends suggest this may be more of a grind than a spectacle.
Our model leans firmly towards an away win, but it also expects a tight encounter, with Atalanta edging it by a single goal more often than not.
Team Form and Context
Pisa sit bottom of Serie A with 13 points from 20 matches and just one win in their last ten league outings (1W-4D-5L). They’re averaging 0.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded in that span. The recent 2-2 draw with Udinese and 1-1 against Genoa show some fight, but the 0-3 home loss to Como highlighted how fragile they become when forced to chase the game.
Alberto Gilardino has tried to stabilise things with a back three and wing-backs, alternating between 3-4-1-2 and 3-5-2. Pisa’s problem is simple: the attack doesn’t create enough, and when they open up, the defence can’t cope with space in behind.
Atalanta, meanwhile, are a strange case. Their last ten league games read 3W-0D-7L, also with 0.7 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game. That raw line looks poor, but performances have often been better than results, especially since Juric has had more time to imprint his high-intensity, man-oriented 3-4-2-1. Comfortable wins over Roma and Torino showed what this team can do when the press clicks, and they still sit 7th on 31 points with a realistic shot at European qualification.
With a Coppa Italia quarter-final on the horizon, squad management is a factor, but Atalanta have the depth to rotate without completely losing their identity.
Tactical Analysis
Gilardino’s Pisa have settled into a defensive three of Canestrelli, Caracciolo and an experienced head like Raúl Albiol, flanked by hard-running wing-backs such as Angori and Calabresi. In midfield, Marin, Aebischer and Léris bring work rate and some distribution, but there’s a lack of natural creativity between the lines. Up front, Tramoni and Moreo (or Meister/Nzola) are mobile but not especially clinical.
Facing Atalanta’s 3-4-2-1, Pisa are unlikely to go man-for-man all over the pitch. Instead, expect a compact mid/low block, with the back three staying narrow and the wing-backs dropping deep to form almost a back five. The priority will be denying space to the two attacking midfielders and forcing Atalanta wide.
Juric, on the other hand, has been very consistent: Carnesecchi in goal, a back three centred by Scalvini, Djimsiti as the experienced anchor, and either Kolasinac or a younger option like Ahanor. Zappacosta and Bernasconi provide width as wing-backs, while De Roon and Éderson form a hard-running, ball-winning central pair. De Ketelaere and Zalewski float between the lines behind a central striker (Krstović or Scamacca), constantly looking for overloads and cut-backs.
Atalanta’s main challenge here will be breaking down a deep block without leaving themselves exposed in transition. Their structure and individual quality suggest that, over 90 minutes, they should carve out enough chances to score, but Pisa’s low-risk approach and the visitors’ modest scoring average point to a narrow margin.
Key Players and Missing Players Impact
No official injury or suspension list has been flagged for this match, so we have to think in terms of likely absentees and rotation rather than confirmed bans.
For Pisa, the key concern is the fitness and availability of senior defenders:
- Raúl Albiol brings leadership, organisation and experience against top forwards. When he plays, Pisa’s back line looks more compact and better prepared for movement between the lines.
- If Albiol cannot start or can only manage limited minutes, more responsibility falls on Canestrelli and Caracciolo. Both are competent, but without that experienced organiser, Pisa are more vulnerable to positional errors against Atalanta’s fluid front three.
In midfield, Pisa lack a clear creator. If Gilardino chooses a more physical trio (Marin, Aebischer, Léris) and sidelines a more technical option like Stengs from the start, Pisa may struggle to get out, limiting them to direct balls towards Moreo or Nzola. That indirectly plays into Atalanta’s hands and keeps Pisa’s goal threat low.
For Atalanta, the main rotational question is at centre-forward:
- Gianluca Scamacca offers strong hold-up play and a real box presence. If he’s managed carefully around cup commitments and doesn’t start here, Nikola Krstović is likely to lead the line.
- Krstović works hard and presses well, but he’s less of an aerial and back-to-goal reference. That slightly reduces Atalanta’s chances from crosses and set pieces, nudging the goal expectation down a bit.
If any of Atalanta’s creative hub – De Ketelaere, Zalewski, or Éderson – were to be missing, their ability to break blocks would dip significantly. In that scenario, the away win probability would drop and the under 2.5 goals would become even more attractive. With the information at hand, though, we assume most of that core is available.
Overall, potential missing leaders (Albiol, Scamacca) don’t dramatically alter the basic balance: Atalanta remain the better team, but any absence of their main striker reinforces the idea of a narrow, low-scoring win rather than a comfortable one.
Expected Goals (xG) Analysis
We don’t have full shot maps here, but we can estimate xG trends from recent goals and playing style:
- Pisa: 0.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game across the last ten. Given their limited attacking production and frequent long-range or low-quality chances, their xG for is likely around 0.9–1.0 per match, with xG against roughly 1.5–1.7. That implies a negative xG differential of around -0.6 to -0.7 per game.
- Atalanta: 0.7 scored and 1.6 conceded in the last ten is almost certainly underperforming their underlying numbers. Juric’s sides typically generate plenty of shots from good positions. Their xG for is realistically closer to 1.4–1.6, with xG against around 1.2–1.4, for a roughly neutral or slightly positive xG differential.
The xG analysis suggests:
- Pisa are getting the results their chance quality deserves: they create too little, concede too much.
- Atalanta are likely underperforming in front of goal and could see some positive regression in finishing, especially against weaker defences.
However, away from home against a deep block, xG tends to be suppressed for both sides. That supports a prediction in the 1.8–2.1 total xG range for this game, aligning more with under 2.5 goals and a one-goal Atalanta win.
Predicted Outcome
Taking everything together – league position, squad quality, tactical match-up, and estimated xG – Atalanta should have the edge, even if their recent headline results are inconsistent.
- Most likely result: Pisa 0–1 Atalanta
- Alternative close outcomes: 0–2, 1–1
We give Atalanta a clear, but not overwhelming, advantage because of their superior structure and player quality, but Pisa’s low-scoring profile and desperation at the bottom of the table make a tight contest more probable than a big away win.
Value Bets vs 1xBet Odds
1xBet offers:
- Match result: Pisa 5.93 | Draw 3.99 | Atalanta 1.68
- Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.00 | Under 1.94
- BTTS: Yes 1.89 | No 1.83
From the probabilities:
- Our model: Atalanta win ~55%, Draw 25%, Pisa 20%.
- The market price of 1.68 on Atalanta implies roughly a 59–60% chance. That’s a touch higher than our estimate, so there isn’t huge pure value in the straight away win, though it remains the logical outcome.
On goals:
- We estimate under 2.5 at around 52%, while odds of 1.94 imply about 51–52%. That’s very close to fair; only a marginal edge at best.
- BTTS Yes we rate at about 52%, while 1.89 suggests closer to 53%. Again, not a strong value angle either way.
Best value angle (relative): a cautious position on Atalanta in handicap markets, rather than the straight 1x2.
Asian Handicap Predictions
Although detailed Asian lines aren’t fully listed, we can infer typical markets around an away favourite priced at 1.68:
- Likely main lines: Atalanta -0.5, Atalanta -0.75, possibly Atalanta -1.0.
Given our projected scoreline (0–1) and expectation of a narrow margin:
- Atalanta -0.5: Essentially the same as backing the away win. With our 55% win probability vs market’s ~59–60%, it’s logical but not strong value.
- Atalanta -0.25 (if available): This would be more interesting, as it reduces downside (half loss on draw). With our 55% away, 25% draw, this kind of line spreads risk sensibly in a game we see as tight.
- Atalanta -1.0: Too aggressive for our model. We don’t see enough scenarios with a two-goal away win to justify this; a push is most likely on that line.
Recommended Asian angle:
- Look for Atalanta -0.25 if bookmakers offer it close to the moneyline price. It fits our predicted one-goal win scenario while giving some protection against a grindy 0–0 or 1–1 draw.
If only -0.5 is available, it’s still a reasonable play from a pure prediction standpoint, but the value edge is slim. In all handicap views, the key is that we expect Atalanta to win, but not by a large margin, in a low-scoring contest.
Summary
Pisa’s lack of attacking punch, combined with Atalanta’s superior structure under Juric, makes an away win the most plausible outcome. The numbers and tactical context both point toward a controlled, low-scoring game in which Atalanta eventually find a way through.
For bettors, that translates into:
- Atalanta to win as the primary angle.
- Slight preference for under 2.5 goals and Atalanta on a cautious Asian Handicap (around -0.25 to -0.5) rather than chasing a big-margin victory.
