Como vs Fiorentina Prediction (Serie A, 14 February 2026)
Como’s surge under Cesc Fàbregas meets a struggling Fiorentina side coached by Paolo Vanoli, and all the underlying numbers point towards the hosts edging a competitive game.
Our model leans to Como to win 2–1, with moderate value on the home side and a slight tilt towards goals.
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Why this prediction
The context of this match is stark: Como sit 6th on 41 points after 23 games, flirting with European qualification, while Fiorentina are 18th with 18 points from 24 matches, firmly in the relegation fight.
Como’s recent form is that of a top-six side: 6 wins, 3 draws and just 1 defeat in their last 10 matches, scoring 22 (2.2 per game) and conceding only 6 (0.6 per game). They’ve drawn with Napoli and Atalanta in their last two, showing they can hold their own against high-level opposition, but also dominate weaker teams.
Fiorentina’s last 10 (3W-3D-4L, 14 scored, 17 conceded) are closer to the numbers you’d expect from a bottom-three side. They’ve shown flashes – notably a 2–1 win over Napoli and a spirited 2–2 draw with Torino – but the consistency isn’t there, especially defensively.
Combine that with Como’s recent 3–1 win away to Fiorentina in January, and the case for a home win becomes strong – though not so strong that we should ignore La Viola’s attacking weapons.
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Team analysis & tactical outlook
Como under Cesc Fàbregas
Fàbregas has given Como a very clear structure, most often in a 4-2-3-1. The last three league matches confirm the pattern: a double pivot built around M. Perrone plus one of Sergi Roberto or M. Caqueret, with N. Paz and M. Baturina central to chance creation.
- Back line: Butez in goal has been reliable, with Diego Carlos, Smolčić and Kempf rotating at centre-back. Full-backs Jacobo Ramón and Álex Valle (or Alberto Moreno) push high, giving width.
- Midfield: Perrone’s energy and reading of the game allow Como to press in waves, while Caqueret and Sergi Roberto bring circulation and control.
- Attack: There’s flexibility up front. Tasos Douvikas has started two of the last three as the central striker, while Álvaro Morata and younger wide options like Kühn and Addai can rotate in. Baturina and Paz provide the creative spark between the lines.
The upshot is a side that tends to dominate territory and shot volume against lower or mid-table teams, and hold parity in big games.
Fiorentina under Paolo Vanoli
Vanoli is still searching for stability. Fiorentina have alternated shapes:
- 4-3-2-1 vs Torino, with De Gea behind a back four of Dodô, Comuzzo, Pongračić and Parisi.
- 4-1-4-1 vs Napoli, with Fagioli deeper and Solomon, Fabbian, Brescianini and Guðmundsson supporting the striker.
- 4-3-3 in the previous meeting with Como, which ended in that damaging 3–1 home defeat.
The recurring themes:
- De Gea offers clear shot-stopping quality, but the defensive unit in front of him has been error-prone.
- Midfielders like Mandragora, Fagioli, Brescianini and Fabbian are industrious and progressive, but the pressing structure is inconsistent.
- In attack, Guðmundsson, Solomon, Harrison, Kean and Piccoli give Vanoli options, but Fiorentina often rely on moments rather than patterns.
Against a structured Como, that disjointedness is a real concern.
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Key missing players & injury impact
This fixture is subtly shaped by who’s absent and who might not be 100%.
Como
- Assane Diao (thigh injury): A dynamic, vertical winger who stretches back lines and offers direct running, especially useful late in games when defenders tire. His absence slightly reduces Como’s ability to change the tempo from the bench, but he’s not their primary creator or scorer.
- Edoardo Goldaniga (heel injury): An experienced centre-back option and a useful aerial presence on set pieces. However, with Diego Carlos, Smolčić and Kempf available, Como are well-covered in central defence.
Net effect: Como lose some rotation and late-game impact but retain their core starting XI and tactical identity. The defensive unit and main creative outlets are intact, so the impact on their baseline performance is modest.
Fiorentina
- Tariq Lamptey (knee injury): Even if he hasn’t started every week, Lamptey is one of Fiorentina’s most explosive wide threats. He provides overlapping runs, ball-carrying from deep and recovery pace in defensive transitions. Without him, Fiorentina lose a valuable outlet on the right and some insurance against counters.
- Albert Guðmundsson (questionable): The big one. He’s their most natural creative hub, comfortable drifting inside from the wing or operating between the lines. If he is limited or doesn’t start, Fiorentina’s chance creation becomes much more reliant on solo runs from Solomon or Kean, rather than structured attacks.
- Daniele Rugani (questionable): Adds leadership and positional sense at centre-back. If he’s not fit to start, it likely means more minutes for a younger pairing of Comuzzo plus Pongračić, which increases the probability of errors under Como’s press.
Net effect: Fiorentina’s ceiling drops if Guðmundsson and Rugani aren’t fully fit. Lamptey’s absence also nudges the balance toward Como, especially on transitions down Fiorentina’s right.
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Expected goals (xG) analysis
We can infer xG profiles from recent goal statistics and game patterns.
- Como: 22 goals scored and 6 conceded in the last 10 suggests an estimated xG for around 1.6–1.8 per game and xG against around 0.9–1.0. Their low goals conceded tally likely reflects a combination of strong organisation and a bit of overperformance defensively, but the underlying defensive structure is clearly solid.
- Fiorentina: 14 scored and 17 conceded over 10 games point to an xG for in the 1.3–1.5 range and xG against around 1.6–1.8. That’s a negative xG differential and in line with a bottom-half side.
The xG differential (Como roughly +0.7 to +0.8 per match in recent form, Fiorentina around -0.2 to -0.3) is one of the key reasons the model leans strongly to the hosts. Como’s attack creates more sustained, repeatable chances, and they suppress opponent xG better.
For the goal total, combining these estimates gives an expected total xG in the 2.8–3.1 range, which marries well with our prediction of a 2–1 scoreline and a leaning towards over 2.5 goals.
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Key stats behind the pick
- Form (last 10): Como 6-3-1 vs Fiorentina 3-3-4.
- Goals per game: Como 2.2 scored / 0.6 conceded; Fiorentina 1.4 scored / 1.7 conceded.
- League position: Como 6th vs Fiorentina 18th.
- Head-to-head (last 5): Como 3W-0D-1L, goals 7–4.
- Recent H2H: Fiorentina 1–3 Como in January.
These numbers support pricing Como as clear favourites but still allow room for Fiorentina to score, especially if Guðmundsson plays significant minutes.
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Value bets vs 1xBet odds
1xBet offer:
- 1X2: Como 1.79 | Draw 3.96 | Fiorentina 4.90
- Over/Under 2.5: Over 1.87 | Under 2.08
- BTTS: Yes 1.73 | No 2.02
1X2 market
Our probabilities:
- Como win: 57%
- Draw: 25%
- Fiorentina win: 18%
The implied probability of Como at 1.79 is roughly 56%, almost perfectly aligned with our 57%. That makes Como to win a fair but not massive value play – acceptable as part of an acca or a small single, but not wildly mispriced.
The draw at 3.96 (~25%) also sits close to our 25% estimate, while Fiorentina at 4.90 (~20%) is just slightly shorter than our 18% rating, so no clear value on the away side.
Goals markets
- Over 2.5 at 1.87 implies ~53.5%.
- Under 2.5 at 2.08 implies ~48.1%.
We have Over 2.5 at 56% and Under at 44%. That gives a small edge to the Over 2.5; not huge, but enough to be interesting given Como’s attacking output and Fiorentina’s defensive fragility.
For Both Teams to Score:
- BTTS Yes at 1.73 implies ~57.8%.
- Our model: Yes 60%.
Again, a slight positive edge on BTTS Yes, particularly in line with a 2–1 or 3–1 type scoreline.
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Asian Handicap predictions
With Como priced at 1.79 on the 1X2, the main Asian Handicap lines that make sense here are around Como -0.5 and possibly Como -0.75 depending on book availability.
Given our probability distribution and predicted 2–1 scoreline (a one-goal margin), Como -0.5 essentially mirrors the straight home win, and we rate it similarly as a reasonable but not huge value position.
If a Como -0.75 line appears near evens or slightly above, it becomes more interesting: half the stake wins if Como edge it by one, and a full win if they cover by two or more. Our model doesn’t strongly expect a multi-goal margin, but there is some upside if Fiorentina’s defensive issues resurface and Guðmundsson is limited.
Conversely, Fiorentina +0.5 or +0.75 doesn’t appeal given their xG differential, away form and the psychological scar of the recent 3–1 home defeat to this same opponent.
Recommended Asian stance: Como -0.5 as the clean, simple angle; consider Como -0.75 only if the price significantly exceeds the straight 1X2.
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Risk & bankroll notes
While the numbers strongly favour Como, there are a few risk flags:
- Fiorentina have enough individual talent (Kean, Solomon, potentially Guðmundsson) to swing a tight game with a moment of quality.
- Como have been slightly overperforming defensively relative to their likely xG against; a single deflection or set-piece can undo a -0.5 bet.
- Fixture congestion for Como, given their deep Coppa Italia run, could lead to some rotation and fatigue in the second half.
For bankroll management, this points towards moderate stakes on the main angles rather than going all-in:
- Primary: Como -0.5 / Como to win.
- Secondary: Over 2.5 goals or BTTS Yes for those preferring goal-based markets.
Stick to a consistent staking plan (e.g. 1–2% of bankroll per main selection) and treat this as a solid but not slam-dunk edge.
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Final verdict
All signs – form, xG trends, league position, head-to-head and injury context – point to Como being the more balanced and reliable side right now. Fiorentina can threaten, but over 90 minutes Fàbregas’ structure should prevail.
Predicted result: Como 2–1 Fiorentina
Best angles: Como -0.5, with a cautious lean to Over 2.5 goals or BTTS Yes for goal-focused bettors.
