Torino vs Bologna Prediction (Serie A, 15 February 2026)
Main pick: Bologna draw-no-bet & under 2.5 goals Projected scoreline: Torino 0–1 Bologna
Two teams looking for a springboard in mid-table meet at Stadio Olimpico di Torino, with Bologna arriving in better overall shape but Torino showing signs of life under Marco Baroni. Everything points to a tight, low-scoring contest decided by details.
Why this prediction
On raw numbers, Bologna are the stronger side right now: 6W-3D-1L from their last 10 league games, scoring 2.0 and conceding just 1.0 on average. Torino, by contrast, sit at 3W-1D-6L with 1.2 for and a concerning 2.0 against.
However, the recent mini-run from Torino – including a statement 2-1 win over Inter and a battling 2-2 draw with Fiorentina – suggests Baroni has stabilised things with a consistent 3-5-2. That recent upswing, plus home advantage, narrows the gap but doesn’t erase Bologna’s edge.
This is why the model leans Bologna (around 38% win probability) but keeps the draw nearly as live (32%). In a league where margins are often razor-thin, the safer angle is Bologna on a protected line rather than an aggressive away-moneyline stance.
Team form and tactical matchup
Torino: improving, but still leaky
Torino’s 10-game numbers look ugly, yet their last three performances show a clearer identity. Baroni has settled on a back three of Marianucci, Maripán and Saúl Coco ahead of Paleari, with wing-backs like Pedersen and Obrador/Lazaro providing width.
In midfield, with Ilič missing, the creative responsibility has fallen on Casadei, İlkhan and Vlašić. They’ve offered more verticality and late runs into the box, which helped produce that 2-1 over Inter and a competitive 2-2 against Fiorentina. Still, conceding 20 across 10 matches tells you this side remains vulnerable when stretched.
Bologna: structure with attacking variety
Vincenzo Italiano has Bologna alternating between 4-2-3-1 and 4-3-3, but the principles stay the same: build from the back, control central zones, and create overloads in the half-spaces.
Skorupski is a steady presence in goal, while Vitík plus Lucumí (if fit) give a blend of height and anticipation at centre-back. Freuler anchors midfield, freeing Ferguson to surge forward. Wide, Orsolini and Cambiaghi (or Rowe/Bernardeschi in rotation) attack the channels and attack the half-spaces.
Even with a recent 0-3 defeat to Milan and a flat 0-1 loss at Parma, the broader pattern is of a side that rarely collapses and usually manages game tempo well.
Key missing players and their impact
Torino absentees
- I. Ilič (back injury) – The most significant Torino absence. Ilič is one of their best progressive midfielders: he links defence and attack, breaks lines with passes and carries, and is comfortable under pressure. Without him, Torino lose a key outlet in buildup and a player who can change tempo. Casadei and İlkhan have done a decent job filling the gap, but neither replicates his mix of control and creativity.
- A. Ismajli (injury) – A depth loss in central defence. Baroni has leaned on Marianucci, Maripán and Saúl Coco recently, and that trio has performed reasonably well, but one fewer option limits flexibility if the game demands a tactical tweak or if there’s an in-game knock.
- Z. Savva (knee injury) – More of a squad/future piece at this stage. His absence doesn’t drastically alter Torino’s immediate attacking structure but reduces rotation options on the flanks.
The net effect for Torino is a slightly blunter buildup and thinner depth at the back. Against a Bologna side that presses in moments and is dangerous on transition, the lack of Ilič in particular tilts the midfield battle toward the visitors.
Bologna absentees
- C. Lykogiannis (hamstring) – A reliable, experienced left-back. Without him, Juan Miranda is expected to start again. Miranda is technically sound and offers attacking thrust, but Lykogiannis’ left foot and delivery are missed, especially on set pieces.
- T. Pobega (red card suspension) – A big physical presence and vertical runner from midfield. His absence slightly reduces Bologna’s ball-carrying threat from deep and late runs into the box. Freuler and Ferguson can still control games, but the midfield loses some bite.
- K. Bonifazi, T. Heggem (inactive) – Depth centre-backs. With them unavailable and Lucumí questionable, the margin for error in central defence narrows.
- J. Lucumí (questionable) and N. Moro (questionable) – Lucumí is the key question mark. Without him, Italiano likely pairs Vitík and Casale, which is serviceable but less assured in build-up. Moro’s absence would cost Bologna some energy and ball-winning, but they have cover in Sohm.
Overall, Bologna’s absences mostly affect depth and specific traits (set-piece quality, ball-carrying), but the core structure under Italiano remains intact. Compare that to Torino losing their main progressive 8, and the balance of advantage on absences still leans slightly Bologna.
Expected goals (xG) analysis
We can approximate xG based on recent scoring and conceding patterns:
- Torino – 12 scored and 20 conceded in their last 10 suggest something like ~1.25 xG for and ~1.7–1.8 xG against per game. They often allow high-quality chances when their wing-backs are caught high or when pressed in build-up.
- Bologna – 20 scored and 10 conceded across the same span point to roughly ~1.7–1.9 xG for and ~1.0–1.1 xG against. They generally limit opponents to low-to-medium quality shots while creating a steady stream of mid-quality chances themselves.
The xG differential is clearly in Bologna’s favour: around +0.6 to +0.8 per match versus Torino’s negative differential. That’s exactly the kind of underlying edge that tends to translate into slightly higher win probabilities over time.
Given Torino’s recent improvement, it’s fair to shade their current xG against slightly better than that 2.0 GA average, but Bologna’s more stable underlying metrics back the away side as the team more likely to edge a tight contest.
In xG terms, this specific matchup looks like something in the region of Torino 0.8–1.0 xG vs Bologna 1.1–1.3 xG, which aligns well with a narrow 0-1 or 1-1 outcome rather than a goalfest.
Key stats behind the pick
- Form (last 10): Torino 3W-1D-6L vs Bologna 6W-3D-1L.
- Goals: Torino 1.2 scored / 2.0 conceded per game; Bologna 2.0 scored / 1.0 conceded per game.
- Head-to-head (last 5): Torino 0W-2D-3L, goals 2–7.
- League table: Bologna 10th on 30 points, Torino 13th on 27 (both after 24 games).
- Totals trend: Market and recent patterns lean towards under 2.5 goals, and stylistically both coaches are comfortable in controlled, cagey games rather than wild end-to-end battles.
Value bets vs 1xBet odds
1xBet 1X2 odds:
- Torino: 3.25
- Draw: 3.27
- Bologna: 2.49
Those odds imply roughly:
- Torino win: ~30–31%
- Draw: ~30–31%
- Bologna win: ~38–39%
My model is very close to that split (Torino 30%, Draw 32%, Bologna 38%), so there’s no huge edge on the straight 1X2.
Where there is some potential value:
- Under 2.5 goals @ 1.81 – Implied probability about 55%. My estimate for under 2.5 is closer to 58%, giving a small but real edge on the unders. Both teams’ tendencies in these kinds of mid-table clashes support a slower, more cautious game.
- Both Teams To Score – No @ 1.94 – That implies BTTS-No around 51–52%. I have BTTS-No at about 52%, so this is marginal rather than huge value, but paired with a Bologna-draw-no-bet angle it fits the game script well.
Given the market snapshot, under 2.5 appears the clearest mild value play.
Asian Handicap predictions
We don’t have a full list of Asian lines from 1xBet here, but we can extrapolate from the 1X2 prices.
With Bologna a slight away favourite, typical Asian lines would be around:
- Bologna 0 (DNB) – roughly in the 1.75–1.85 range.
- Torino +0.25 / Bologna -0.25 splits.
Given my probabilities and a predicted 0–1 scoreline with a high draw risk, the standout angle is:
- Bologna 0 (draw-no-bet) – You’re backing Bologna’s structural edge and better underlying metrics while getting your stake back if Torino’s recent uplift and home advantage are enough to force a draw.
I’d be cautious going to Bologna -0.5 unless the price drifts significantly higher than the implied 38–39% win probability. The model doesn’t see a large margin of victory; this is far more likely to be a one-goal game or a stalemate.
Risk & bankroll notes
- This is a classic low-margin Serie A spot: small differences in xG and form, high potential for a draw.
- Treat Bologna DNB and under 2.5 as medium-confidence, small-stake plays, not all-in positions.
- Avoid building multiple parlays around this match alone – variance in low-scoring games is high, and a single deflected goal or set-piece can flip any carefully crafted script.
Final verdict
Bologna come into this with better form, stronger xG numbers and a more settled tactical identity under Italiano. Torino’s recent uptick under Baroni and the absence of a couple of key Bologna defenders and midfielders do narrow the gap, but the visitors retain a slight edge.
Putting it all together, the most likely narrative is a controlled, low-scoring contest, with Bologna a touch more clinical in the key moments.
Predicted result: Torino 0–1 Bologna Best angles: Bologna draw-no-bet; under 2.5 goals
