Cremonese vs Genoa Preview (Serie A, 15 February 2026)
Two sides locked on 23 points meet at Stadio Giovanni Zini in what already feels like a six-pointer. Cremonese are desperate to halt a long winless run, while Genoa under Daniele De Rossi arrive with more attacking punch but plenty of defensive flaws.
Our model edges this in Genoa’s favour, expecting a tight 1-0 away win and a low-total game.
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Why this prediction
Cremonese’s overall numbers are brutal: 0 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats in their last 10 matches, scoring only 3 goals (0.3 per game) and conceding 16. Even accounting for the morale boost of a recent 2-1 win over Atalanta, the trend says they struggle badly to create and finish chances.
Genoa’s recent form is mixed but clearly superior: 3 wins, 3 draws, 4 losses, with 13 goals scored (1.3 per game) and 17 conceded. They’ve been involved in chaotic, high-variance games – like the dramatic late defeat to Napoli that left De Rossi furious with some of the decisions – yet they consistently carry more threat in the final third than Cremonese.
With both teams on 23 points and hovering above the drop, the context pushes towards a cautious, cagey match. In that type of game, the side with the greater individual quality in attack usually finds the edge. That points slightly toward Genoa.
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Team form and tactical outlook
Cremonese under Davide Nicola
Nicola has settled on a 3-5-2 in recent weeks, with E. Audero in goal and a back three built around F. Baschirotto and S. Luperto for muscle and aerial strength. Wing-backs like T. Barbieri and G. Pezzella are tasked with providing width, while the central trio – often M. Thorsby, A. Grassi and Y. Maleh – focus more on work-rate and balance than creativity.
The issue is clear: there’s little incision between the lines. When the ball reaches F. Bonazzoli and veteran J. Vardy, it often comes from long diagonals or hopeful direct play. That’s a tough way to consistently produce goals, and it shows in the home side’s paltry scoring record.
Genoa under Daniele De Rossi
De Rossi has also leaned heavily on a 3-5-2, but his use of the system is more aggressive. L. Østigård and J. Vásquez anchor the defence, giving license for B. Norton-Cuffy and Aarón Martín to bomb on as wing-backs. In midfield, M. Frendrup and M. Ellertsson bring legs, while R. Malinovskyi offers range of passing and a serious long-range threat.
Up front, the complementary pairing of Vítinha and L. Colombo gives Genoa both mobility and penalty-box presence. This has produced more open matches – they concede plenty, but they also commit numbers forward and frequently outshoot opponents.
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Key missing players and their impact
Cremonese are dealing with a problematic injury list, and it directly affects how they can approach this game.
- M. Bianchetti (muscle injury) – A central figure in their back three, his absence removes leadership and organisation at the heart of the defence. Without him, Baschirotto and Luperto shoulder more responsibility, and the line can lose compactness under pressure.
- W. Bondo (muscle injury) – Bondo’s energy and ball-carrying from midfield are crucial in transitioning from defence to attack. Cremonese already struggle to progress the ball; losing him makes them even more reliant on long passes and set pieces.
- M. Collocolo (injury) – Another key midfielder, Collocolo brings box-to-box running and late surges into the area. His absence strips out a goal threat from deep and forces Nicola to keep things more conservative with Grassi and Thorsby sitting deeper.
- M. Faye (face injury) – As a young, athletic defender, Faye offers depth and pace in the back line. His absence shortens the rotation and reduces Nicola’s flexibility if he needs to adjust mid-game.
- J. Vandeputte (injury) – Perhaps the most damaging attack-wise. Vandeputte is one of their best sources of width and crossing quality from the flank. Without him, chance creation from wide areas drops significantly.
- F. Ceccherini (questionable) – He has started recent games; if he’s not fully fit or has to sit out, that further weakens the defensive unit and may force a less experienced option into the back three.
By contrast, Genoa are missing fewer core pieces:
- T. Baldanzi (injury) – Baldanzi is an important creative link when used as a second striker or advanced midfielder. His ability to receive between the lines and slip passes into the forwards is a loss, especially against deep blocks. However, Genoa can compensate with Malinovskyi drifting into similar zones.
- B. Siegrist (finger injury) – With J. Bijlow established as the starting goalkeeper, this has minimal tactical impact.
Overall, Cremonese lose more in terms of structure and progression, while Genoa’s framework remains largely intact. That imbalance is a key reason we lean toward the away side.
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Expected goals (xG) analysis
We can approximate xG trends from recent scoring patterns:
- Cremonese
- Goals for: 3 in last 10 → around 0.3 goals per game.
- Given they’re not completely shotless, a reasonable xG estimate is ~0.8 xG for and ~1.5 xG against per match recently – implying underperformance in attack but steady defensive pressure.
- Genoa
- Goals for: 13 in last 10 → 1.3 goals per game.
- With their open style and higher shot volume, they likely sit around 1.4–1.6 xG for and roughly 1.7–1.9 xG against per game. That aligns with their high-scoring, end-to-end contests.
The xG differential favours Genoa. Even if Cremonese’s actual goals undersell their underlying numbers slightly, they are still creating far less than De Rossi’s side. In a match where one goal could decide it, backing the team that more consistently generates 1.3–1.5 xG rather than one hovering below 1.0 xG makes statistical sense.
For totals, combining these profiles in this specific game state – a nervy relegation clash – we project:
- Combined xG: roughly 1.8–2.0.
- That points toward a strong lean to under 2.5 goals, with a decent chance of a 0-0 or 1-0 type scoreline.
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Key stats behind the pick
- Form (last 10)
- Cremonese: 0W–3D–7L, 3 scored, 16 conceded.
- Genoa: 3W–3D–4L, 13 scored, 17 conceded.
- Attacking output
- Cremonese: 0.3 goals per game.
- Genoa: 1.3 goals per game.
- Head-to-head (last 5)
- Cremonese: 1W–1D–0L vs Genoa, 2 scored, 0 conceded.
- Very small sample and not reflective of current squads/coaches.
- League context
- Both on 23 points after 24 games (positions 15 and 16), but Genoa’s attacking metrics are more sustainable, whereas Cremonese’s survival bid has been built on scraping results with limited firepower.
These numbers collectively support Genoa having a modest but real edge, and the low combined attacking efficiency from Cremonese steers us toward a low-scoring projection.
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Value bets vs 1xBet odds
1X2 market
- Cremonese: 3.32
- Draw: 3.06
- Genoa: 2.58
Those odds roughly imply:
- Home: ~30%
- Draw: ~32%
- Away: ~38%
Our model sits at:
- Home: 32%
- Draw: 30%
- Away: 38%
So the prices are basically in line with our projections. There’s no huge edge on the outright away win. If forced, Genoa to win is still the side we’d rather be on, but the value is marginal.
Both Teams to Score
- Yes 2.04 (implied ~49%)
- No 1.71 (implied ~58%)
Our probabilities:
- BTTS Yes: 44%
- BTTS No: 56%
Again, the prices are close to fair. Given Cremonese’s anaemic attack and Genoa’s capacity to shut up shop if they score first, we slightly prefer BTTS No, but it’s not a standout value play.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
- Over 2.5: 2.63 (implied ~38%)
- Under 2.5: 1.58 (implied ~63%)
Our model:
- Over 2.5: 39%
- Under 2.5: 61%
The total market is also very close to our projection. Under 2.5 still aligns with the data and game state, and we’re comfortable recommending it as a solid, if not spectacular, option.
Overall, the clearest angle is combining ideas rather than hammering one edge: leaning Genoa on a cautious line (like draw-no-bet) plus under 2.5 goals or BTTS No in smaller stakes.
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Asian Handicap predictions
The exact Asian lines aren’t fully listed, but based on the 1X2 odds, the likely main lines will sit around Genoa 0 (DNB) or Genoa -0.25.
Given our probabilities:
- Genoa win: 38%
- Draw: 30%
- Cremonese win: 32%
Recommended AH angle:
- Genoa 0 (draw-no-bet) – This effectively removes the draw as a losing outcome. With our numbers, you win if Genoa edge it (the most likely single outcome), and you get your stake back if the game finishes level. Considering Cremonese’s offensive issues and heavier injury burden, this is a pragmatic way to back the away side while limiting downside.
- If a line of Genoa -0.25 appears at attractive odds, it might offer slight upside but comes with more risk, as half your stake loses on a draw. Given how tight this profiles, we prefer the safety of the 0 handicap.
On the totals side, a 2.0 or 2.25 goal Asian line would suit under backers. With our combined xG projection around 1.8–2.0, unders on such lines would provide a softer landing if the match creeps to exactly two goals.
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Predicted scoreline
Taking everything into account – form, injuries, tactical match-up and xG trends – the most likely specific result is:
Cremonese 0–1 Genoa
We see Genoa’s wing-backs and midfield quality creating just enough to break through, while Cremonese’s stripped-down attack finds it hard to respond.
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Risk & bankroll notes
This is still a relegation scrap between two inconsistent sides, and matches like these can hinge on a single defensive error, set piece or refereeing decision. De Rossi’s Genoa have already been involved in emotional, VAR-tinged rollercoasters this season, which adds volatility.
For that reason, stakes should be moderate, not aggressive. Use Genoa draw-no-bet or conservative Asian Handicap lines to manage risk, and treat the under 2.5 goals position as a core lean rather than an all-in conviction play.
