Parma vs Verona Prediction (Serie A, 15 February 2026)
Parma and Verona meet in a tense relegation-tinged clash at Stadio Ennio Tardini, with the hosts slightly favoured despite mixed form. The data points to a tight, low-scoring contest where Parma’s defensive structure and Verona’s injury crisis could be decisive.
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Why this prediction
Parma’s recent numbers are modest, but they sit 14th with 26 points, a full 11 clear of bottom-placed Verona on 15. Despite Verona’s better 10-game form line, they arrive severely weakened through the spine, while Parma’s key framework – goalkeeper, central defender, and main creator – is intact.
Carlos Cuesta García has gradually settled Parma into back-three variations, trading attacking fluidity for solidity. Paolo Zanetti’s Verona, by contrast, are forced into patchwork lineups, particularly in central defence and midfield, where absences strip away experience and physicality.
Layer on the odds: the market makes Parma slight favourites, but once you price in Verona’s missing starters, the home edge looks a touch stronger than the raw prices suggest.
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Team form and momentum
Parma
- Last 10: 3W–3D–4L
- Goals: 6 for (0.6/game), 13 against (1.3/game)
Parma’s form is volatile. A stunning 4-0 win over Atalanta showed what this side can do when the press clicks and the forward line finishes efficiently. But that performance sits alongside a 1-4 loss to Juventus and a narrow 0-1 defeat to Bologna, underlining their inconsistency in the final third.
What is consistent is the pattern: low-scoring matches, with Parma rarely blowing teams away and often relying on structure rather than sustained attacking pressure. Their recent formations – 3-5-2, 4-3-2-1, 3-4-2-1 – tell the same story: extra bodies in midfield, wing-backs providing width, and one or two forwards asked to work hard in channels.
Verona
- Last 10: 5W–3D–2L
- Goals: 14 for (1.4/game), 13 against (1.3/game)
Verona’s recent run looks healthier than their 20th place suggests. A 4-0 win over Cagliari and a solid 0-0 draw vs Pisa show they can both score freely against weaker sides and lock down games when set up conservatively.
However, that upturn in results came with a more settled XI. With several important players now out, maintaining that attacking punch and defensive organisation becomes significantly harder, particularly away to a side that tends to drag games into attritional territory.
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Key missing players and their impact
This fixture is heavily shaped by who isn’t on the pitch.
Parma absentees
- N. Estévez (knee) – A central midfield metronome and ball-winner, Estévez brings balance and experience. His absence forces more responsibility onto M. Keita and H. Nicolussi, who must cover ground and protect the back three while still linking play.
- A. N'Diaye (groin) – Another midfield option removed, reducing Cuesta’s rotation and physicality in the centre. Expect a leaner core, increasing the risk of fatigue late on but not fundamentally weakening the XI’s quality.
- M. Frigan (knee) – A depth attacker whose absence limits options off the bench. With Mateo Pellegrino and G. Oristanio likely starting, Parma’s attacking changes later in the game become more predictable.
- L. Valenti (muscle) & M. Troilo (suspended, red card) – This is the bigger structural issue. Both have featured regularly in the back three. With Valenti injured and Troilo suspended, A. Circati becomes the defensive leader and E. Del Prato plus a depth option such as N. Elphege must step in. That slightly lowers aerial dominance but keeps mobility and ball progression.
- Z. Suzuki (finger) – A goalkeeper absence, but E. Corvi has been starting, so this doesn’t impact the first XI.
Overall, Parma lose depth and some experience, especially in defence and midfield, but their primary creative hub Adrián Bernabé and key wing-back E. Valeri are available, so their game model remains intact.
Verona absentees
- A. Bella-Kotchap (injury) & N. Valentini (injury) – Two central defenders out severely thins Verona’s backline. That leaves V. Nelsson as the key organiser, flanked by younger or less proven options like T. Slotsager and A. Edmundsson. Set-piece defending and handling crosses from Parma’s wing-backs become real pressure points.
- R. Gagliardini (injury) – A major loss in midfield. Gagliardini’s experience, physical presence and positional sense are central to Verona’s ability to disrupt opposition build-up and win second balls. Without him, Al Musrati has to do even more dirty work, and Verona risk being outmanoeuvred between the lines.
- T. Suslov (knee) – A creative and energetic midfielder who can drive transitions and support the forwards. His absence reduces Verona’s capacity to progress the ball cleanly and link midfield to the front two.
- R. Belghali (ankle) – Removes a direct, wide option, limiting Verona’s ability to change shape and attack flanks late in the game.
- A. Bernede (questionable) – If he doesn’t start or is limited, Verona lose another technical midfielder capable of ball retention in tight spaces.
Collectively, Verona are hit far harder than Parma. They lose multiple first-choice options in central defence and midfield, hollowing out exactly the areas you need to be strong in a tough away match. This is a key reason the edge leans towards Parma despite Verona’s superficially better recent record.
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Tactical breakdown
Parma (Carlos Cuesta García)
Expect a 3-5-2 similar to the Bologna game:
- Back three: Del Prato – Circati – Elphege, focusing on maintaining a compact block.
- Wing-backs: Britschgi and Valeri pushing high to supply width and crosses.
- Midfield: Keita and Nicolussi as energetic CMs, with Bernabé advanced as a roaming creator.
- Front line: Oristanio and Pellegrino working channels, pressing Verona’s build-up and attacking the space behind wing-backs.
Parma will likely look to control territory, keep the game narrow centrally, and exploit Verona’s weakened backline via overloads on the flanks and deliveries into the box.
Verona (Paolo Zanetti)
Zanetti’s recent setups point to a 3-5-2 again:
- Defence: Slotsager – Nelsson – Edmundsson, a mix of youth and experience but lacking depth.
- Wing-backs: Lirola and Bradarić providing the width and most of the progressive carrying.
- Midfield: Al Musrati anchoring, with Lovrić and Harroui as box-to-box options, trying to compensate for Gagliardini and Suslov’s absence.
- Attack: Orban and Sarr as a mobile, physical pairing looking to run channels and exploit transitions.
Verona will likely be more reactive: defend medium-to-deep, absorb pressure, and then spring quickly into space. But with creativity and ball-winning downgraded, sustaining those counter-attacks becomes more difficult.
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Expected goals (xG) analysis
We can approximate xG using recent scoring and conceding trends:
- Parma
- Goals scored: 0.6 per game → est. 0.9–1.0 xG for (finishing slightly under expectation).
- Goals conceded: 1.3 per game → est. 1.2–1.3 xG against.
- Verona
- Goals scored: 1.4 per game → est. 1.2–1.3 xG for (possibly overperforming, especially given opponents).
- Goals conceded: 1.3 per game → est. 1.3–1.4 xG against.
Given Verona’s loss of defensive and midfield anchors, their xG against is likely to tick up slightly in this fixture, while Parma’s limited forward quality probably caps their xG for around the 1.0 mark.
Overall match xG projection: ~1.7–1.9, which aligns strongly with an under 2.5 goals expectation and favours narrow scorelines like 1-0 or 1-1 rather than anything more expansive.
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Key stats behind the pick
- Parma: 0.6 goals scored / 1.3 conceded in last 10 – heavy under trend.
- Verona: 1.4 scored / 1.3 conceded, but now missing several core players from that run.
- Head-to-head last 5: 2W–1D–2L, goals 6:6 – even and tight.
- League table: Parma 14th (26 pts), Verona 20th (15 pts) – quality and stability edge to the hosts.
- Tactical shapes on both sides emphasise compactness and wing-backs, structurally leaning toward low-scoring games.
These metrics support a cautious view: Parma have just enough quality to edge it, Verona just enough resilience to avoid a rout. That points cleanly to Parma 1-0 Verona as the primary scoreline.
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Value bets vs 1xBet odds
1xBet 1X2 odds:
- Parma: 2.47 (≈ 40% implied)
- Draw: 2.98 (≈ 33% implied)
- Verona: 3.64 (≈ 27% implied)
Our model:
- Parma: 43%
- Draw: 32%
- Verona: 25%
That creates a small value edge on Parma, particularly in draw-protected markets.
Both Teams to Score
- Market: Yes 2.02, No 1.72 (implied slight lean to ‘No’).
- Our model: Yes 44% / No 56%.
There’s no huge mispricing here, but ‘BTTS – No’ aligns with the under and the injuries. It’s a logical part of any same-game multiple built around a tight Parma win.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
- Over 2.5: 2.57 (≈ 39% implied)
- Under 2.5: 1.60 (≈ 61% implied)
- Our model: Over 38% / Under 62%.
The market is almost exactly in line with our projection, so under 2.5 is the right side but not a screaming value. It’s still a solid anchor if you’re happy with a low margin.
Best value angles:
- Parma draw-no-bet / Parma 0 Asian to reduce risk.
- Tiny edge on straight Parma ML at 2.47 for those comfortable with variance.
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Asian Handicap predictions
With a predicted 1-0 Parma win, the logical Asian Handicap lines are around level ball to -0.25.
- Parma 0 (DNB): Ideal safety net. If it finishes level (which we rate at 32%), you get your stake back. Our 43% Parma win probability vs market’s ~40% makes this a modest value play.
- Parma -0.25: Splits your stake between Parma 0 and Parma -0.5. You win full if Parma win; if it’s a draw, you only lose half. This suits our model well given we see a narrow home edge but respect Verona’s ability to grind out draws.
- Parma -0.5: Pure win-only position. With only a slight edge over the market on Parma’s win probability and a strong under trend, -0.5 is more aggressive than necessary for most bettors.
Given the low expected goal margin and Verona’s likely stubbornness, Parma -0.25 Asian Handicap stands out as the best risk-adjusted option, with Parma 0 (draw-no-bet) the more conservative alternative.
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Predicted outcome
All factors considered – form, injuries, tactics, and market odds – the most probable outcome is:
Parma 1-0 Verona
Parma’s home structure, Verona’s depleted spine, and both teams’ recent scoring patterns all point towards a cagey, defensive match where one moment of quality or a set piece decides it. Backing Parma with some draw protection and leaning to the under fits the data best.
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Risk & bankroll notes
- This is still a low-margin match between two lower-table sides, so variance is high.
- Stakes should be kept modest – think 0.5–1 unit rather than a full-confidence play.
- Because the edge over the market is relatively small, these bets work best as part of a broader, disciplined strategy rather than a standalone “must win” position.
If team news close to kick-off confirms Verona’s absentees and Parma’s expected XI, the edge on Parma Asian lines and the under solidifies. Any late unexpected absences for Parma, particularly Bernabé or Valeri, would drag the game even further towards a 0-0 or 1-1 scenario, increasing the value of the pure under 2.5 angle.
