Bologna vs Juventus Preview (Serie A 2025)
Bologna host Juventus at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara with the unusual feeling that the momentum is firmly on their side. With Vincenzo Italiano’s men flying and Igor Tudor’s Juventus still trying to recalibrate without their main strikers, this has all the ingredients of a tight but significant clash in the European race.
Our projection leans toward a narrow 1–0 Bologna win, built on defensive structure and Juve’s limited attacking punch.
---
Team Form and Context
Bologna’s recent numbers are the profile of a top-four contender: 6 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss in their last 10, averaging 1.8 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded. They’ve done that while managing injuries and rotating between Europe and domestic duties, which speaks to how well-drilled Italiano’s system is.
The back line has been consistent: Heggem and Lucumí give a solid, aggressive central pairing, with Holm and Miranda offering width and energy. In midfield, the double pivot – usually some mix of Moro, Pobega, Sulemana or Ferguson – allows three attacking midfielders to play high and between the lines.
Juventus, by contrast, are stuck in a transitional patch. Over their last 10 league outings they’ve gone 2W-3D-5L, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.6 goals per game. Tudor’s move to a more proactive 3-4-2-1/3-5-2 has improved their ball progression, but the end product has lagged badly, and the defence hasn’t been the usual Juve fortress.
Recent wins over Udinese, Pafos and a battling result against Napoli showed flashes of what this side can be when it clicks – Koopmeiners stepping into midfield, McKennie and Locatelli pressing high, and dynamic movement from Yıldız, Zhegrova and David. But consistency has been missing, especially when it comes to turning territorial dominance into clear chances.
---
Tactical Match-Up
Bologna under Vincenzo Italiano
Italiano has stamped his usual template on Bologna: a 4-2-3-1 that becomes a very aggressive attacking structure in possession.
- Build-up: Heggem and Lucumí split, with one of the pivots dropping close. Full-backs Holm and Miranda push high to pin the Juve wing-backs.
- Between the lines: Orsolini and Cambiaghi (or Bernardeschi/Rowe) drift inside, leaving space for overlapping full-backs. Fabbian or Bernardeschi in the No.10 role are key to the final pass.
- Pressing: Bologna press in a 4-4-2/4-2-3-1 shape, with Castro or Dallinga leading and the wingers jumping aggressively onto Juve’s wide centre-backs.
The big question is how well Bologna’s high line copes with the running of Jonathan David and Kenan Yıldız. Italiano will back his side to squeeze the pitch, trusting Ravaglia and the central duo to manage balls in behind.
Juventus under Igor Tudor
Tudor has shifted Juventus toward a back three with wing-backs, leaning on technical defenders and all‑action midfielders:
- Shape: A 3-4-2-1 with Koopmeiners often the ball-playing centre-back, Kalulu and Kelly providing pace and strength.
- Midfield battle: Locatelli and Thuram (or Miretti/McKennie) attempt to control the centre, using short passing triangles with the wing-backs.
- Attack without a classic No.9: With Vlahović and Milik out, the front line is more fluid. David likes to run channels and drop off, while Yıldız and sometimes McKennie occupy the half-spaces.
The structure can give Juventus control, but without a proper target man they can look toothless when the game slows. Against a compact Bologna block, that lack of penalty-area presence is a real concern.
---
Key Missing Players and Their Impact
This match is heavily shaped by who isn’t available.
Bologna
- Łukasz Skorupski (GK, thigh injury) – Long-time No.1 and a vocal organiser. His shot-stopping and experience are a loss, but F. Ravaglia has already started the last three and looked composed. The drop-off is manageable.
- Remo Freuler (shoulder injury) – This is the big absence. Freuler’s positional discipline, interceptions and calmness under pressure are vital in shielding the defence and helping Bologna evade the press. Without him, Italiano likely leans on N. Moro and T. Pobega as the double pivot. They bring legs and forward thrust but slightly less control. Expect Bologna to be a bit more open in transitions.
- Nicolò Casale & M. Vitík (defensive injuries) – Casale’s absence limits rotation at centre-back, but Lucumí and Heggem have already been heavily used together. Depth is thinner, but the starting quality remains.
- Ciro Immobile (inactive) – A huge name, but he hasn’t been central to this project; Bologna’s current attacking structure has developed without relying on him.
Overall, Bologna lose some experience and control, especially through Freuler, but their first XI remains strong and well-balanced.
Juventus
- Dusan Vlahović (groin injury) – The most significant absentee. Vlahović is the primary goal threat, aerial outlet and reference for Juve’s attack. His ability to occupy two centre-backs and finish low-xG chances is precisely what unlocks tight games like this.
- Arkadiusz Milik (calf injury) – The main alternative No.9. Milik offers hold-up play and set-piece threat. Without him, there’s no like-for-like replacement for Vlahović.
- Federico Gatti (knee injury) – Important for depth and physicality in the back line. With him out, Kalulu–Kelly–Koopmeiners almost picks itself and leaves little margin for error.
- Carlo Pinsoglio (calf, questionable) – Third-choice keeper; his status doesn’t affect the starting XI.
Taking Vlahović and Milik out of the equation drastically reduces Juve’s box presence. Tudor must rely on David, Openda or Yıldız, all excellent movers but not classic penalty-box strikers. That’s a big reason why we project Juventus to struggle for clear chances.
Net impact: Bologna miss some control and leadership, but Juventus lose their most decisive attacking weapons. That swings the overall balance slightly in Bologna’s favour.
---
Head-to-Head and Psychological Angle
The last five meetings between these sides have all ended in draws, with an 8–8 goal aggregate. Bologna have repeatedly shown they can stand toe-to-toe with Juventus tactically and physically, even when the Turin side were in better overall shape than they are now.
That sequence is important psychologically. Bologna no longer see Juve as an untouchable giant; they see a direct rival they can outplay on the day. Conversely, Juventus know this fixture has become awkward, and coming into it with key injuries and patchy form only amplifies that tension.
---
Expected Goals (xG) Analysis
We can approximate an xG profile from recent performance:
- Bologna – 1.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game over the last 10 strongly suggests an xG for around 1.6–1.8 and xG against around 0.9–1.0. Even if they’re slightly overperforming in attack, the repeated low concessions indicate a robust defensive xG profile.
- Juventus – 1.0 scored and 1.6 conceded hint at an xG for around 1.1–1.3 and xG against around 1.4–1.6. The negative xG differential fits what we’ve seen: decent territory and half-chances, but not enough big opportunities created, and defensive lapses punished.
The xG differential (Bologna roughly +0.6 to +0.8 per game, Juventus around -0.3 to -0.5) underpins our prediction. In a single match, that sort of gap doesn’t guarantee a result, but it does justify making Bologna slight favourites, especially at home.
In a game like this, our expected goals model lands around Bologna 1.2–1.4 xG vs Juventus 0.7–0.9 xG. That aligns closely with a 1–0 or 1–1 outcome, with under 2.5 goals a marginal favourite.
---
Predicted Outcome
Taking all factors together – form, xG trends, tactical match-up and crucial injuries – our projected probabilities are:
- Bologna win: 43%
- Draw: 30%
- Juventus win: 27%
We therefore go for a Bologna 1–0 Juventus scoreline. Bologna’s pressing and variety in wide areas should generate enough pressure to fashion one clear chance, while Juventus’ attack, stripped of Vlahović and Milik, may lack the cutting edge to respond.
We also rate BTTS (both teams to score) at about 58%, but the specific combination of Juve injuries and Bologna’s strong defensive record pushes us toward a slightly higher probability on one side keeping a clean sheet, with under 2.5 goals at around 54%.
---
Value Bets vs 1xBet Odds
Let’s compare our projections with the 1xBet prices:
- Match odds:
- Bologna: 3.00 (implied probability ~33%)
- Draw: 3.26 (implied ~31%)
- Juventus: 2.66 (implied ~38%)
Our model has Bologna at 43%, clearly higher than the market’s ~33%. Juventus we have at 27%, notably below the market’s ~38%. This suggests the market is still overrating Juventus on name and underrating Bologna’s current level and Juve’s injury situation.
Potential value:
- Bologna Draw No Bet (Asian 0) – Our 43% home win and 30% draw probability make the home side on a DNB or +0 handicap particularly attractive. You’re effectively backing Bologna’s stronger form while protecting against the high draw risk that has defined this fixture.
- Straight Bologna win @ 3.00 – Also looks like value, but with more volatility due to the high draw probability.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
- Over 2.5: odds 2.32 (implied ~43%)
- Under 2.5: odds 1.71 (implied ~58%)
We project under 2.5 at ~54%, slightly lower than the market’s 58%. That means the under isn’t a strong value play at current prices. The over 2.5 at 2.32 is close to break‑even versus our 46% estimate and could be considered a small speculative angle if you expect Juve’s forwards to overperform.
Both Teams to Score
- Yes: 1.87 (implied ~53.5%)
- No: 1.85 (implied ~54%)
We rate BTTS Yes at 58% and No at 42%, so there’s a mild value case on BTTS Yes, especially if you think Bologna’s occasional openness without Freuler will yield one good chance for Juventus.
---
Asian Handicap Predictions
The exact Asian Handicap lines aren’t fully listed, but we can infer likely markets:
- Bologna +0 (Draw No Bet) – With our probabilities, this is the clearest value. You back Bologna’s home edge and superior form, and a draw returns your stake.
- Bologna -0.25 – For more aggression, this splits your stake between -0 and -0.5. If Bologna win, you profit; if it’s a draw, you only lose half your stake. Given the long run of draws in this fixture, this is riskier but still interesting if the price is attractive.
- Juventus +0.25/+0.5 – Our model doesn’t support these unless the odds drift significantly. With their negative form trend and missing strikers, we don’t see enough edge backing Juve on the handicap.
Based on our 1–0 Bologna prediction and modest margin of victory, we prefer conservative angles:
- Primary AH recommendation: Bologna 0 (Draw No Bet).
- Secondary, more speculative: Bologna -0.25 if priced generously.
---
Key Players to Watch
- Riccardo Orsolini (Bologna) – Cutting in from the right, he’s often the man for the big moments, whether via a curling shot or a slipped pass into the box.
- Lewis Ferguson / Nikola Moro (Bologna) – Whoever anchors the midfield will be crucial in dictating tempo and disrupting Juve’s attempts to build through Locatelli.
- Teun Koopmeiners (Juventus) – The brain at the back, responsible for progressing play and stepping into midfield. If Bologna can press him effectively, Juve’s structure can wobble.
- Kenan Yıldız (Juventus) – The young playmaker who can unlock a game with one dribble or combination. Without Vlahović, much of Juve’s creative burden falls on him.
If these players tilt the midfield battle and chance quality one way or the other, they will determine whether this stays a narrow Bologna win or slides toward yet another draw.
In sum, all the indicators – from form and xG to injuries and tactical match-ups – point to Bologna having the slight but real edge, with tight margins and low scoring likely to define this one.
